NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Warriors: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x145c34162da2236236630076d9102a2159d3c8dbfc2965ddf78995b2df1c4bf8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Mavericks, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,633
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,633 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf5d…7253backed Mavericks | 37c | 1,092$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.41 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Mavericks | 35c | 821.67$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…6b0abacked Warriors | 75c | 785.28$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Warriors | 65c | 653.94$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.38 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Warriors | 63c | 482.34$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.81 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Warriors | 79c | 400$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Mavericks | 21c | 380$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…14d9backed Mavericks | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Warriors | 65c | 166$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.47 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Mavericks | 21c | 144.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 455 | 42.4%193 W · 262 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Warriors | 63c | 123.29$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.62 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Warriors | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Warriors | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 185 | 49.2%91 W · 94 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Warriors | 66c | 21.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8017…3366backed Warriors | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…7544backed Warriors | 67c | 15.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ea…4d74backed Warriors | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcab4…9895backed Warriors | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Warriors: 1H Moneylinethis page
- Mavericks vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Mavericks vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.