TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$561,772
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$584,271

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $561,772 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaefe…1e4abacked Over59c256,000$151,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104,959.991040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-25.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Under41c234,220$96,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96,705.741,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under41c14,784$6,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,083.622,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Over51c8,888$4,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,355.1220352.2%106 W · 97 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under43c8,819$3,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,798.799,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Over50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under49c3,707$1,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,804.975,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Over58c3,103$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,303.4522756.8%129 W · 98 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Under49c2,821$1,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,382.5371547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked Over51c1,819$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891.3129652.7%156 W · 140 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3a1…3529backed Over56c1,786$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.715444.4%24 W · 30 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under51c1,555$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.547542.3%201 W · 274 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Over56c1,500$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66049142.6%209 W · 282 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under50c1,261$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.472,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Over51c1,185$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.4115653.8%84 W · 72 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a94…822cbacked Under41c1,110$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45521355.9%119 W · 94 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…0a77backed Over52c1,058$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.6915756.7%89 W · 68 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Over51c1,020$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50050754.2%275 W · 232 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Under50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50044654.3%242 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f05…4480backed Over56c949.18$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.181656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea27…19c6backed Over54c833.17$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.274057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over56c577.86$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.022,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Over56c535.71$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.7121852.8%115 W · 103 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under42c500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2102,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24da…9561backed Under42c499.97$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.996949.3%34 W · 35 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6894…3a44backed Over57c457.14$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.571546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf984…bc8cbacked Over56c448.17$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.17250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Under46c440$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.41,19747.5%569 W · 628 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64c6…244cbacked Over53c366.98$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.489445.7%43 W · 51 L-11.3wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-21.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2d84…aa68backed Under41c304.56$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.8711060%66 W · 44 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over51c300$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14784150.3%423 W · 418 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Under47c286.21$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.5222945.9%105 W · 124 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4455…98e5backed Over56c268.39$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.396953.6%37 W · 32 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over74c259.07$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.018,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under48c251.43$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.72,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e24…b31fbacked Over54c231.48$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.4814357.3%82 W · 61 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x35af…44f3backed Over51c227.45$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.4517953.6%96 W · 83 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Over51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981,66150.3%836 W · 825 L-14.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a8…1b66backed Under50c198$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9918954.5%103 W · 86 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Over51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.081,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41ce…6509backed Over53c188.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.7128046.8%131 W · 149 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Under49c183.67$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9030452.6%160 W · 144 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-2.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x34ad…040abacked Over58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.414341.9%18 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+37.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda5c…ed5bbacked Over59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.493056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under46c165.27$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.961,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Over59c116.95$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.9562546.9%293 W · 332 L+1.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb460…041fbacked Under45c111.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508132.1%26 W · 55 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c13…99b7backed Under50c110$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5547738.2%182 W · 295 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4835739.8%142 W · 215 L-25.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8d14…1eb4backed Over53c94.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.6537352%194 W · 179 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Under47c89.98$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.691,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Over56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2961056.1%342 W · 268 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4e6…224cbacked Under46c86.96$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408852.3%46 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x216f…9b1ebacked Under45c84$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.86349.2%31 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x263f…c744backed Over61c80.41$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.110357.3%59 W · 44 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfec…5059backed Under41c73.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.011118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.6wins-0.33per pick51cpaid-67%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Over58c68.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9733258.7%195 W · 137 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under38c63.86$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.971,69544.7%758 W · 937 L-30.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6f8…256ebacked Over55c54.55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.559547.4%45 W · 50 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b35…a23cbacked Over57c53.33$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.932259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe56e…0bb4backed Over57c52.63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6324248.3%117 W · 125 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6533…0f9cbacked Over52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2449358.6%289 W · 204 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under42c47.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0593849.7%466 W · 472 L+36.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked Over44c45.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.481942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe26b…a9ecbacked Under44c45.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205455.6%30 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaf1…47a4backed Under46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207250%36 W · 36 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3bd…2bf8backed Under50c43.22$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.612646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+43.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over57c42.11$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1160346.4%280 W · 323 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67bc…4d94backed Over57c38.6$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.621051.4%108 W · 102 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75e1…3ff3backed Over48c38.46$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208853.4%47 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce49…4740backed Under52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2023642.4%100 W · 136 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed Over54c36.32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8242143.7%184 W · 237 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06d5…0417backed Over56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7134050.3%171 W · 169 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d8c…c270backed Over57c35.1$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick66cpaid+25.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x063c…d642backed Over55c33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.853237.5%12 W · 20 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-24.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Under44c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.28355.4%46 W · 37 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea1c…73e6backed Over51c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.77042.9%30 W · 40 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0fa7…2e1abacked Over51c29.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.412045%9 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cf9…142bbacked Over55c29$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.053246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6aa…93f8backed Over59c27.15$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.136618.2%12 W · 54 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over60c25.53$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2141556.9%236 W · 179 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked Under40c25.53$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.214452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x347a…83e3backed Under41c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.259940.4%40 W · 59 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ac…e166backed Over59c24.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1318757.2%107 W · 80 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9942…5b7dbacked Over55c22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.92536%9 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-31.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.