NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae197137138697c59b5bcce54521e0f77390ce6754e8c7ba0d64b35dfdc79196
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 53c | 5,062$2,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,392.63 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 54c | 3,280$1,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,503.08 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Under | 48c | 2,604$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.9 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 1,924$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.17 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Over | 50c | 1,390$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.16 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Under | 46c | 1,316$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.32 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 46c | 1,113$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.98 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed Over | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Under | 47c | 800$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 48c | 518.52$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.52 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Under | 46c | 499.99$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 47c | 479.25$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.25 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 388.64$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.43 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 14c | 360$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Under | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 48c | 299.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 126 | 50%63 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…66f0backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…718ebacked Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 54c | 190$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Over | 55c | 179.4$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.73 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 25c | 156.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 10c | 134.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 50c | 125.37$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Under | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…f1ecbacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 37cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 522 | 42.7%223 W · 299 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…8449backed Over | 74c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4816…5e9fbacked Over | 76c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -21.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…bf0abacked Over | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 48c | 25.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2599…9218backed Over | 78c | 25.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5this page
- Mavericks vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Mavericks vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Mavericks vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.