TailMyPicks
Market

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Warriors (-8.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Warriorsof Warriors, Mavericks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,108,684
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,240,351

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,108,684 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 311 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Warriors52c278,293$145,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132,485.9787451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Warriors51c200,000$102,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97,499.9817251.7%89 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Mavericks48c164,154$78,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78,781.5659347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcc9…26fbbacked Mavericks49c135,000$66,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66,0004456.8%25 W · 19 L+7.5wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+26%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x18d1…dbcbbacked Warriors52c118,914$61,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,338.729641.7%40 W · 56 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Mavericks49c106,197$52,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,036.361,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Mavericks47c93,110$43,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,761.6459653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2734…6d9ebacked Warriors52c47,861$25,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,820.266144.3%27 W · 34 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Mavericks47c32,864$15,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,592.332,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Mavericks48c29,568$14,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,192.752460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Warriors52c27,477$14,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,220.719351.3%99 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Mavericks46c24,217$11,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,250.842,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e0…024ebacked Mavericks50c20,500$10,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,3501450%7 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+52.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked Mavericks47c20,000$9,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,4002759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+27%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Mavericks50c12,475$6,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,237.5129351.5%151 W · 142 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Warriors51c12,468$6,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,092.549,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Mavericks52c12,000$6,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,24051753.8%278 W · 239 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Warriors52c12,000$6,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,76020352.2%106 W · 97 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Mavericks46c10,000$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,6001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8366…21ebbacked Mavericks48c10,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8005352.8%28 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Mavericks48c10,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8001,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Warriors50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0001,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd53d…8c19backed Mavericks50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x615d…8f9fbacked Mavericks50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Warriors50c9,900$4,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,9502,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Mavericks49c9,120$4,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,427.421,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Warriors49c8,862$4,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,519.6771547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Warriors51c7,500$3,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,67569149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Mavericks49c7,311$3,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,573.411,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Warriors50c7,028$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,528.0976746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Warriors47c6,837$3,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,623.4574748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Warriors49c6,265$3,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,195.1592753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked Mavericks48c6,265$3,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,007.0411452.6%60 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Mavericks49c6,122$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00031044.8%139 W · 171 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedb1…819ebacked Mavericks51c6,100$3,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,12515855.7%88 W · 70 L-9.8wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x251e…71e4backed Mavericks50c5,600$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,80020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Warriors51c5,460$2,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,678.151,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc40…c795backed Warriors53c4,728$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,207.32742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+69.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Mavericks49c4,444$2,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,177.5676850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Mavericks48c4,121$1,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9831,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Mavericks51c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,04017348.6%84 W · 89 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd89e…35fabacked Mavericks50c4,000$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0104544.4%20 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Warriors53c3,783$2,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,777.9615549.7%77 W · 78 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x443d…017fbacked Mavericks51c3,653$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,88023550.2%118 W · 117 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Mavericks47c3,294$1,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,564.611,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks48c3,111$1,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,492.148,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Mavericks49c3,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47010057%57 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Warriors51c2,688$1,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,317.241,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Warriors51c2,500$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,22585147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Warriors48c2,500$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,299.934,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Warriors51c2,458$1,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,196.5710949.5%54 W · 55 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Warriors51c2,251$1,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.085,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2984…0fc6backed Mavericks49c2,155$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.852642.3%11 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-28.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Mavericks49c2,016$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.8448957.5%281 W · 208 L+2.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Mavericks47c2,000$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93044654.3%242 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Mavericks50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00016848.2%81 W · 87 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Mavericks48c1,809$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.982,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Mavericks51c1,764$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.642,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors47c1,755$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.036,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Mavericks35c1,716$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60023248.7%113 W · 119 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Mavericks50c1,600$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80011049.1%54 W · 56 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7cd…0888backed Mavericks50c1,600$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80017744.1%78 W · 99 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Mavericks49c1,524$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74735749.6%177 W · 180 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ede…2de3backed Mavericks48c1,447$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.484548.9%22 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3a1…3529backed Mavericks50c1,400$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7005444.4%24 W · 30 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55a1…db28backed Mavericks36c1,400$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.995541.8%23 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1a94…822cbacked Mavericks48c1,313$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63021355.9%119 W · 94 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mavericks47c1,170$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.92,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf75f…c26cbacked Warriors49c1,119$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.69560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+80.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93a2…5181backed Mavericks48c1,091$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.6815038%57 W · 93 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6395…d69dbacked Mavericks47c1,051$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.972441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd942…f9d3backed Mavericks48c1,042$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50021142.7%90 W · 121 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bd5…26ccbacked Mavericks53c1,010$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.0851651%263 W · 253 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dc5…b639backed Mavericks53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5305437%20 W · 34 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-29%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mavericks47c1,000$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4654,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf395…8e3cbacked Mavericks50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50011839.8%47 W · 71 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x516a…a2edbacked Mavericks50c987.44$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.722240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2c7…2e93backed Warriors50c880$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44021152.6%111 W · 100 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked Mavericks51c819$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.6929652.7%156 W · 140 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Mavericks52c800$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41661747.8%295 W · 322 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68bf…3e67backed Warriors56c799.97$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.9910244.1%45 W · 57 L-6.9wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x101c…7df8backed Mavericks48c794.34$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.348644.2%38 W · 48 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed Mavericks50c793.74$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.8715244.1%67 W · 85 L-14.4wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-18.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3334…a65dbacked Mavericks48c764.58$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3675540%22 W · 33 L-5.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-16.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Mavericks50c690.53$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.8952242.7%223 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc954…642fbacked Warriors53c613.02$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.121952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Mavericks49c600$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29421858.7%128 W · 90 L+17.1wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Mavericks52c578$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.5640648%195 W · 211 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Mavericks52c576.92$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30021852.8%115 W · 103 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b01…8f47backed Warriors61c546.4$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.713342.4%14 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44b9…0598backed Warriors70c541.78$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.782040%8 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Mavericks40c510.23$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.0953539.6%212 W · 323 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Mavericks50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25073649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Mavericks49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24559144.5%263 W · 328 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb116…940abacked Mavericks50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25012655.6%70 W · 56 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x24da…9561backed Mavericks47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2356949.3%34 W · 35 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc443…359bbacked Warriors55c472.07$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.3623845%107 W · 131 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Mavericks47c430$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.222138%84 W · 137 L-11.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb0b…3790backed Mavericks24c425.53$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.1327937.3%104 W · 175 L+57.6wins+0.21per pick17cpaid+187%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x4a3d…3ec1backed Mavericks48c425.31$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.153026.7%8 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.