NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x234973a6e2624d12d5080e744a09b8ae01cb21108799a4d8c3d8c3bf920e7119
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 11,115$4,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,905.74 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f5…3092backed Over | 58c | 9,343$5,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,893.01 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Under | 48c | 2,706$1,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297.87 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 48c | 2,405$1,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250.36 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 1,202$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.04 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…3f72backed Over | 53c | 1,090$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.3 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f6…15fbbacked Over | 54c | 988.15$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.15 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Over | 48c | 963.82$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.55 | 156 | 53.8%84 W · 72 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Under | 52c | 862.24$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.36 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Under | 52c | 723$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.96 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1a…d048backed Under | 52c | 598.85$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.83 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Over | 52c | 500.83$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.4 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 193 | 51.8%100 W · 93 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 55c | 461$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.45 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…7d67backed Over | 59c | 298.22$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.27 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1a…d9abbacked Under | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 51c | 229.52$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.83 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Under | 49c | 183.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Under | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 141 | 27.7%39 W · 102 L | -16.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Over | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 337 | 30.3%102 W · 235 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Under | 47c | 132.97$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 129.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Over | 53c | 124.06$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 46c | 121$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 51c | 117.03$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.67 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 105.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa771…c2c1backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d1…e145backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Under | 51c | 96.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 189 | 54.5%103 W · 86 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Over | 52c | 90$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Over | 53c | 89.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d76…90c2backed Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Over | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Under | 47c | 63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Under | 47c | 63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 48c | 41.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 50c | 39.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…d962backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Under | 48c | 39.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e7…51d6backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e02…c5f2backed Over | 53c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…3f14backed Under | 48c | 32.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…2b28backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…98b5backed Over | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…e97abacked Over | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x474b…c5b1backed Under | 48c | 26.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed Over | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…148bbacked Over | 54c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…7544backed Under | 48c | 22.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…7893backed Over | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 288 | 52.8%152 W · 136 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5this page
- Mavericks vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Mavericks vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Mavericks vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.