NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad4723a60242333c317b49c6904794fa5d86c7f9b57a753781b1e7e48449cd05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 13,969$6,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,010.99 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Under | 52c | 12,054$6,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,208.08 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Under | 48c | 4,500$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,159.64 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,039.8 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 51c | 3,295$1,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,618.47 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed Over | 50c | 1,992$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Over | 49c | 1,837$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.73 | 164 | 42.1%69 W · 95 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 29c | 1,736$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.25 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Under | 49c | 1,542$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…4c69backed Under | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Over | 51c | 897.32$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.09 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed Under | 54c | 836.95$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…f30abacked Under | 50c | 740$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 2c | 496.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Under | 45c | 469.99$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.49 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc40…c795backed Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Over | 51c | 392.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.46 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e9…5112backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 217 | 49.3%107 W · 110 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef6f…084bbacked Under | 45c | 273.56$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.95 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Under | 50c | 206.42$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.91 | 332 | 58.7%195 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 43c | 204.55$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.78 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 203$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.52 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Over | 50c | 200$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.63 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 141 | 27.7%39 W · 102 L | -16.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Over | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 185 | 36.2%67 W · 118 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Under | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Under | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x648c…09c6backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 14c | 81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe26b…bee7backed Under | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f7…7584backed Over | 53c | 51.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 53c | 38.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…59c4backed Over | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Over | 42c | 25.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42bf…30f7backed Over | 50c | 24.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…bf0abacked Over | 63c | 20.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5this page
- Mavericks vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Mavericks vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Mavericks vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.