TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump and Putin hug on Friday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$161,805
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$168,287

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,805 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x877c…007cbacked Yes9c34,167$2,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,996.7260%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6725…4b40backed Yes14c7,736$1,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,112.2270%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes5c7,115$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.59200%0 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b92…42e6backed Yes5c6,597$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.364511.1%5 W · 40 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-75%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a24…71e8backed Yes8c4,255$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.432646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaefb…6a8fbacked Yes7c2,138$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes8c1,846$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.644156.1%23 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32a4…3956backed Yes7c1,750$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.321040%4 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd424…f7b7backed Yes7c1,554$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeae5…33c1backed Yes9c1,482$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cc1…c54abacked Yes8c1,395$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.48450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes7c1,300$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.9812830.5%39 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes8c1,181$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.86147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick21cpaid-86.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd4e…3cc1backed Yes15c1,024$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501811.1%2 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-73.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef6b…488cbacked Yes11c1,003$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3ff…8c22backed Yes1c1,003$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-58.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9ff…fbb2backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda44…2b09backed Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.22per pick41cpaid+61%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703650%18 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8d6…612cbacked Yes9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes11c999.98$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1106033.3%20 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c4c…cb39backed Yes12c998.97$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.222152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d83…6b32backed Yes10c992.18$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2951…8f9fbacked Yes11c965.82$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.462119%4 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+307.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f47…0043backed Yes15c946.67$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes9c836.42$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.082626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-40.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6b4…781cbacked Yes13c810.47$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3405…30edbacked Yes13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-58%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x212c…8e4abacked Yes7c750.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes7c699.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4921426.2%56 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x22bd…ad18backed Yes7c688.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-68.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfde6…7ed6backed Yes13c680.47$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.983724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-49.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes9c659.97$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.819932.3%32 W · 67 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc178…35b3backed No53c591.28$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.91782.4%14 W · 3 L+7.5wins+0.44per pick38cpaid+138.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xde35…0239backed Yes9c550$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-47.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes6c536.12$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4139429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60bb…833abacked Yes12c522.15$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.61425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06e1…d431backed Yes7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x986a…a1b6backed Yes11c500$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0ee…9610backed Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3df1…72e7backed Yes12c500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7238…cbc1backed Yes9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5316…4ae5backed Yes6c495$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.390%0 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf97a…cfe6backed Yes14c489.26$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7140%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed Yes12c450$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52430%0 W · 43 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x57d1…7db5backed Yes11c445.45$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4950%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeede…4287backed Yes12c432.68$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0fe…a41abacked Yes12c416.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed Yes4c399.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-67%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe358…2b9abacked Yes14c391.29$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2383…b556backed Yes9c388.9$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-68.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01f4…d22dbacked Yes14c370.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb867…169dbacked Yes10c341.36$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-73.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x820c…7a8cbacked Yes7c314.25$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.841020%2 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked Yes10c311$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.36317.5%11 W · 52 L-6.8wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-61.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick17cpaid+53.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe409…aa26backed Yes8c300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39af…624ebacked Yes7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15c6…ab0abacked Yes8c262.5$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a4e…e2b3backed Yes9c260.04$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd2e…57a8backed Yes12c250.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x88e3…6c81backed Yes6c250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5e8…0a7cbacked Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-47.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf13d…e84cbacked Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3d…498abacked Yes9c220$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.12321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-34.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ab…bc60backed Yes14c214.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb65b…6c84backed Yes7c212$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34f2…eaf2backed Yes15c206.41$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3abe…bdccbacked Yes12c204.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6823…8534backed Yes14c203.57$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb02e…25e5backed Yes8c200.95$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.931910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes9c200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.511322.1%25 W · 88 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd403…2b64backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3753…13c1backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3af9…7d59backed Yes14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4598…c539backed Yes9c175.78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ff7…a4d4backed Yes9c173.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11c4…dbf7backed Yes12c170.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Yes11c161.56$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.77843.6%34 W · 44 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d2a…b7aebacked Yes8c156.88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe451…7920backed Yes13c154.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f02…1cb5backed Yes13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a05…2a69backed Yes12c149.67$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x144c…50fcbacked Yes11c136.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63d3…a9b8backed Yes12c125$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3644…29aabacked Yes12c125$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x15d4…56a2backed Yes12c125$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf01b…9670backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick39cpaid-84.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc428…622ebacked Yes12c117.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x899f…04f4backed Yes13c116$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes11c115.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.24616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc3e…0211backed Yes10c110$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+138.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81f9…2bf0backed Yes12c109.17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6a81…4d20backed Yes14c106.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc39…eaf8backed Yes15c102.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104214.3%6 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-65.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8864…ce17backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bcc…a253backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes12c99.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123234.4%11 W · 21 L-4.5wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-46.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeb56…5ebebacked Yes11c98.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.