Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1480c4200a9c7c1699efa8eb85ae8b873e9dc92229294aa86c420628014ad48e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa05e…4394backed Yes | 79c | 1,227$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 31c | 1,100$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.57 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 16c | 811.39$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 682.91$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.29 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 6c | 614.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 21c | 446.26$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.99 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4850backed Yes | 71c | 360.1$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.96 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 20c | 260$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 259.33$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 6c | 252$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 60c | 237.61$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.69 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 18c | 228.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.46 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 13c | 206$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 199.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 64c | 179.11$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.02 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 8c | 160.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 10c | 149.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 63c | 146.08$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 16c | 126.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 40c | 119.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 19c | 110.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.8 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 78c | 102.81$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 28c | 96.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 27c | 88.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 16c | 88.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.18 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 81.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 74.16$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 19c | 66.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked No | 56c | 65.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 63.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 76c | 57.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 37c | 53.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 79c | 51.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 25c | 42.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 36c | 41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…85f2backed No | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5d…2a43backed Yes | 50c | 37.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 78c | 35.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 34.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 33.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 75c | 31.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 70c | 29.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e3…6651backed No | 73c | 27.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 73c | 27.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 80c | 25.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 68c | 25.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 40c | 24.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2840…ae07backed No | 79c | 23.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked Yes | 68c | 19.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed No | 76c | 17.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 68c | 15.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 77c | 14.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 80c | 14.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…90a8backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C or higher on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.