Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Scotland (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x148fa5e2d2af899821d503035e90500b7f29a932733feadf61317897bf9d8aa9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Scotlandof Scotland, Curaçao
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Scotland | 31c | 1,448$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.99 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Curaçao | 75c | 1,234$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.57 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Scotland | 36c | 590.27$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.47 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Curaçao | 68c | 579$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.4 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Curaçao | 72c | 487$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.79 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Scotland | 30c | 333.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.32 | 172 | 18.6%32 W · 140 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Scotland | 32c | 298.81$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.2 | 1,204 | 48.9%589 W · 615 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Curaçao | 66c | 244.05$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.21 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Curaçao | 63c | 209.77$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.05 | 765 | 51.6%395 W · 370 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Scotland | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 194 | 48.5%94 W · 100 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Curaçao | 63c | 150$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 111 | 35.1%39 W · 72 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Scotland | 25c | 143.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.75 | 518 | 59.8%310 W · 208 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Curaçao | 63c | 125.47$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 815 | 54.8%447 W · 368 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…a423backed Curaçao | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Scotland | 35c | 82.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Scotland | 33c | 61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Curaçao | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33fc…dc88backed Scotland | 31c | 52.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Curaçao | 75c | 49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 397 | 46.3%184 W · 213 L | -28.9wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Curaçao | 72c | 46.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 831 | 53.3%443 W · 388 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…7f72backed Curaçao | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 137 | 45.3%62 W · 75 L | -14.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Curaçao | 52c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 631 | 51.5%325 W · 306 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Curaçao | 67c | 34.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 360 | 45.3%163 W · 197 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea8…7347backed Curaçao | 70c | 31.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Curaçao | 66c | 26.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 481 | 52.4%252 W · 229 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Curaçao | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 379 | 50.1%190 W · 189 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Curaçao | 67c | 18.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 847 | 51%432 W · 415 L | +10.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Curaçao | 77c | 18.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Scotland (-2.5)this page
- Scotland vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Scotland vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5Over won
- Scotland vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5Over won
- Scotland vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5Over won
- Scotland vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5Over won
- Scotland vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5Over won
- Scotland vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Scotland (-1.5)Scotland won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.