Fifa International · resolved market
Scotland vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d280d613c2dbc376ccf5fa50f6c5caf9ec997bb00390efd886f353e1c7b933b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 68c | 2,299$1,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.68 | 389 | 60.7%236 W · 153 L | +24.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 43c | 1,783$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.4 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…ef9ebacked Over | 70c | 1,420$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.85 | 304 | 65.1%198 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 1,240$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.19 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 30c | 1,207$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.86 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Over | 52c | 1,090$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.41 | 425 | 41.6%177 W · 248 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 23c | 1,022$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 30c | 955.62$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.7 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Under | 44c | 766.1$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.03 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 48c | 764$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.72 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 56c | 699.19$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.38 | 125 | 59.2%74 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Under | 39c | 533$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.67 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb262…9b98backed Over | 80c | 487.03$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.41 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 111 | 47.7%53 W · 58 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 22c | 358.55$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed Over | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ed…6fb8backed Over | 58c | 296.55$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.55 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c8…4573backed Over | 69c | 264.39$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.96 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Under | 15c | 260.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 444 | 35.4%157 W · 287 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…ff9abacked Over | 59c | 244.07$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.07 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 29c | 242.55$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 59c | 182.15$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.91 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 45c | 154.83$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.91 | 935 | 42.2%395 W · 540 L | -27.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9522…7af0backed Under | 29c | 133$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 39c | 106.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 33c | 100.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 39c | 96.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 765 | 51.6%395 W · 370 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Under | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 57c | 87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 848 | 44.3%376 W · 472 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 61c | 82.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…2f76backed Under | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 61c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa9…5c8ebacked Under | 32c | 43.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 46c | 39.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 631 | 51.5%325 W · 306 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcadd…c7e6backed Over | 53c | 20.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9f…8473backed Over | 68c | 19.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 51cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8221…2217backed Over | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 58 | 79.3%46 W · 12 L | +8.0wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 63c | 16.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 374 | 58.8%220 W · 154 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Scotland vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5this page
- Scotland vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Scotland vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5Over won
- Scotland vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5Over won
- Scotland vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5Over won
- Scotland vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5Over won
- Scotland vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Scotland (-1.5)Scotland won
- Spread: Scotland (-2.5)Scotland won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.