TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,837
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,057

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,837 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9495…9a27backed St. Louis Cardinals64c515.11$331 inLost-$331.372,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs47c497.27$234 inWon+$263.488,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Chicago Cubs36c486.76$175 inWon+$311.535,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals66c255.96$168 inLost-$167.7411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals74c249.63$186 inLost-$185.9710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals60c241.58$144 inLost-$144.0212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbecc…5672backed Chicago Cubs26c238.46$62 inWon+$176.464540%18 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked St. Louis Cardinals33c175.84$58 inLost-$58.1799624.6%245 W · 751 L-70.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Chicago Cubs48c128.09$61 inWon+$66.735,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed St. Louis Cardinals79c119.51$94 inLost-$94.421,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Chicago Cubs32c100$32 inWon+$681,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed St. Louis Cardinals79c74.38$59 inLost-$58.762,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d91…f592backed Chicago Cubs21c74.38$16 inWon+$58.767537.3%28 W · 47 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs33c72.47$24 inWon+$48.554,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1631…072dbacked St. Louis Cardinals33c65.52$22 inLost-$21.6277353.9%417 W · 356 L+35.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x287d…38febacked Chicago Cubs22c56.23$12 inWon+$43.867126.8%19 W · 52 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed St. Louis Cardinals48c49.26$24 inLost-$23.6643954.7%240 W · 199 L+30.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals77c45.48$35 inLost-$35.026,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Chicago Cubs53c40.14$21 inWon+$18.9372655.4%402 W · 324 L+40.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked St. Louis Cardinals42c26.81$11 inLost-$11.295,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.