MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe54fef19765836c285a211650c14f8d60e6ccbc10320078da3cf4262a25ad302
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 54c | 12,609$6,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,838.75 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4c…1f30backed Under | 54c | 12,000$6,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,566.24 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 67c | 7,725$5,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,547.7 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 7,542$3,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,485.07 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Over | 33c | 7,500$2,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,475 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 46c | 3,734$1,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,711.11 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 2,228$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.08 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 48c | 2,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Over | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 53c | 1,800$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 30c | 1,529$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.29 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 1,434$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.86 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 47c | 1,390$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.89 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 45c | 1,219$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.55 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Over | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.04 | 162 | 48.8%79 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Under | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 833.3$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.61 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x173f…e44dbacked Over | 47c | 827.48$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 800$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 45c | 791.02$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.96 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Under | 55c | 661.08$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.49 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 46c | 581.4$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.81 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 47c | 500.7$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.33 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed Under | 55c | 468$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.6 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 46c | 380$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.8 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 68c | 311.29$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.53 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 39c | 191.7$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.47 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 47c | 191.5$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.06 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 45c | 184$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 46c | 174.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.09 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Over | 33c | 148.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Under | 55c | 147.27$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 34c | 126.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 55c | 99.09$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 46c | 96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 30c | 95.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 45c | 82.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 25c | 77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 37c | 72.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcc…13c3backed Under | 56c | 70.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Over | 35c | 66.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Over | 36c | 64.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Over | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 176 | 45.5%80 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Over | 27c | 57.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 45c | 48.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 40.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 68c | 38.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 55c | 37.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 45c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba17…5c67backed Over | 33c | 34.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 43c | 32.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 48c | 30.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 80c | 30.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…4f8ebacked Over | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 46c | 26.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Over | 49c | 24.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 55c | 22.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 55c | 22.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…bd3bbacked Over | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9355…038dbacked Under | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.