MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb7b1fb42c21514c9f2c54255998ca715688efa30446944ba6c9f47d81bf32d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 29c | 3,879$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.73 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Chicago Cubs | 71c | 3,446$2,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.24 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Chicago Cubs | 79c | 1,146$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.62 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed St. Louis Cardinals | 21c | 1,146$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.62 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed St. Louis Cardinals | 29c | 923.63$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.88 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 71c | 728.33$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.76 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Cubs | 72c | 456.92$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.66 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs | 77c | 360.93$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.43 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…455bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs | 72c | 349.67$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.64 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Chicago Cubs | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 29c | 162.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Chicago Cubs | 71c | 116.41$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed St. Louis Cardinals | 29c | 108.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed St. Louis Cardinals | 29c | 103.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 33c | 88.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f0…78cfbacked Chicago Cubs | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs | 70c | 73.09$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Chicago Cubs | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed St. Louis Cardinals | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Chicago Cubs | 71c | 44.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 572 | 44.6%255 W · 317 L | -35.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed St. Louis Cardinals | 29c | 37.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Chicago Cubs | 72c | 21.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 802 | 55%441 W · 361 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Chicago Cubs | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Chicago Cubs | 71c | 17.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Chicago Cubs | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.