MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23140d0b86ee6539630ff39f4a0c570f4417a2e1c9d294a398120734d6465066
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Over | 53c | 10,000$5,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,660.68 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 9,286$5,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,842.26 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 43c | 8,150$3,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,471.52 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 43c | 6,153$2,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,639.24 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 4,091$1,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,887.4 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 48c | 1,026$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.4 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 916.93$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.3 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 39c | 706.7$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.1 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 39c | 627.06$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.55 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 61c | 417.97$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.67 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 59c | 377.45$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.75 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 33c | 304.77$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.57 | 573 | 46.9%269 W · 304 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 47c | 255.06$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.5 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 53c | 247.38$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.65 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 39c | 228.72$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.73 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Under | 43c | 200.93$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.92 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 67c | 180$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 44c | 109.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 38c | 96.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 47c | 92.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Over | 43c | 90$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 56c | 88.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 55c | 79.12$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2534…3484backed Under | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 61c | 60.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 49c | 55.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 58c | 51.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 42c | 49.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9883…1d31backed Under | 65c | 48.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 40c | 47.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 72c | 47.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 63c | 42.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Over | 38c | 40.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed Over | 63c | 37.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae3…93c3backed Over | 63c | 37.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 79c | 34.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 39c | 32.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 59c | 27.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 67c | 24.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 661 | 59.5%393 W · 268 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf390…bdbabacked Over | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Under | 79c | 22.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Over | 57c | 22.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Over | 58c | 22.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 67c | 20.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 66c | 16.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.