MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf31549667b4934a773bab3b0019754cc0cb7de6b8ca7895188fbdd280c9049ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 47c | 5,448$2,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,887.26 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…68c5backed Over | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,650 | 95 | 60%57 W · 38 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 47c | 2,239$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.33 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 1,761$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.53 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 45c | 1,489$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.54 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 51c | 1,397$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.18 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 53c | 1,067$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.88 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 14c | 1,065$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.1 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 800$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 51c | 728.97$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.71 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 51c | 728.97$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.71 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 564.7$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.16 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 52c | 559.75$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.05 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 42c | 544.06$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.89 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 54c | 509.98$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.84 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 40c | 462.13$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.4 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 47c | 460$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.8 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Under | 48c | 381$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.12 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 46c | 318.99$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.99 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Under | 46c | 293.25$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.36 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 285.1$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.1 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2534…3484backed Under | 45c | 244.2$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.54 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 58c | 224.61$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.69 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 49c | 212.65$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.82 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 48c | 205.63$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.93 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 48c | 204.23$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.52 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 49c | 201.43$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.73 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 50c | 188.5$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.25 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 51c | 187.79$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.38 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 52c | 156.37$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.27 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Over | 37c | 134.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 146 | 44.5%65 W · 81 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Under | 50c | 123.68$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Under | 49c | 119.29$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.66 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 48c | 117.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 53c | 115$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 49c | 96.16$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 84.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcadd…c7e6backed Over | 48c | 84.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 45c | 78.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 73c | 61.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 47c | 56.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Under | 45c | 56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 45c | 55.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Over | 47c | 51.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 48.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 51c | 45.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 54c | 38.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd030…f3f0backed Under | 49c | 30.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcc…13c3backed Under | 57c | 29.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 49c | 27.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 52c | 22.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 48c | 21.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 634 | 54.3%344 W · 290 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Under | 62c | 17.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.