MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce63f0f694d15fccb0720d587e4928f675ac7d0d96229e34d4bc5aff0843d9ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 17,584$10,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,105.53 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Chicago Cubs | 42c | 7,381$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,280.95 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 6,379$3,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,739.99 | 172 | 48.8%84 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 42c | 5,250$2,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,064.96 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Chicago Cubs | 43c | 2,000$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 1,946$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142.89 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 1,904$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.25 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 1,800$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 1,792$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.88 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 1,616$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.17 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Chicago Cubs | 49c | 1,195$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.45 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 1,149$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.63 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 1,126$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.84 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.06 | 162 | 48.8%79 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 801.21$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.71 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 640.37$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.43 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Chicago Cubs | 47c | 638.29$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.29 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 592.7$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.22 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 585.92$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.83 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 357.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.14 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs | 57c | 316.2$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.22 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 314.86$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.28 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 281.1$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.85 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 260.55$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.61 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 49c | 252.8$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.81 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Chicago Cubs | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 241$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.19 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…1c26backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 238$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.04 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 222.4$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.22 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Chicago Cubs | 36c | 209.5$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.08 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 205.26$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.08 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 205$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.4 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 184.7$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.97 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 163.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.75 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb21…3138backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 127$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.93 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago Cubs | 53c | 120$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f0…78cfbacked Chicago Cubs | 43c | 116.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 104.07$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 85.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 63.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 63.13$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 59.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 53.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…184cbacked Chicago Cubs | 47c | 50.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 284 | 53.9%153 W · 131 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 49.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Chicago Cubs | 34c | 45.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 47c | 44.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…0172backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 44.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 40.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 35.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcadd…c7e6backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 35.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 34.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 65c | 33.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 33.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fe…4a05backed Chicago Cubs | 73c | 28.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked St. Louis Cardinals | 67c | 28.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 26.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago Cubs | 64c | 19.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.