UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14ada711656ae40966f8cb12aa46e3a9376c4e3e879a067770a86c08fbe1aaf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 18c | 5,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036b…ead4backed Yes | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87b6…4ababacked Yes | 18c | 1,500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 74c | 817.85$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Yes | 26c | 762.07$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec7f…7d79backed Yes | 32c | 426.48$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 76c | 313.34$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd3…74d4backed Yes | 24c | 209.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc80…ae6fbacked No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Yes | 19c | 194.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9855…bda6backed Yes | 27c | 185$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 70c | 180.25$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Yes | 24c | 168.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 71c | 137.17$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 73c | 96.19$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 385 | 53.2%205 W · 180 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7af6…a40ebacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a7…2255backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50e…465fbacked Yes | 30c | 67.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…658bbacked Yes | 28c | 54.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x960a…1b17backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d71…08a9backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 70c | 21.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…81dbbacked No | 61c | 16.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)Mauricio Ruffy won
- Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Michael Chandler win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.