UFC · resolved market
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cf2b7ffb43ff24c848bc8cdad972a3c946d60cbed534eb4ed13651e66a3641a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x036b…ead4backed No | 32c | 6,331$2,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,042.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Yes | 67c | 2,985$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.07 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 32c | 1,226$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.7 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 30c | 1,154$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.53 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Yes | 68c | 1,131$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.8 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 30c | 865.29$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.45 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 30c | 865.1$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.77 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7161…ad39backed Yes | 67c | 639.06$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -62%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Yes | 71c | 555.59$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.52 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6e…bd19backed Yes | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 30c | 395.83$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.34 | 381 | 53.5%204 W · 177 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6561…e3c2backed Yes | 66c | 377.97$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.97 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…2a32backed Yes | 69c | 362.67$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.67 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b7…21fbbacked Yes | 69c | 353.3$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.52 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +7.4wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x44d8…9574backed Yes | 66c | 287.3$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d4…a2c5backed Yes | 69c | 201.1$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed9…e266backed Yes | 72c | 176.39$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…38dbbacked Yes | 68c | 172.45$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.46 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc4…fcc5backed Yes | 71c | 154.93$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…13adbacked Yes | 68c | 153.8$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed No | 30c | 149.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Yes | 69c | 143.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2074…c64ebacked Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa859…fdb5backed Yes | 71c | 141.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…0085backed Yes | 67c | 138.93$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 70c | 138.24$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Yes | 78c | 138.15$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfc…b095backed Yes | 70c | 134.29$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d36…8f64backed Yes | 72c | 129.51$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Yes | 66c | 126.6$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 28c | 119.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 35c | 119.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ad…1014backed No | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked No | 34c | 116.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ae…55f8backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…e4c2backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 29c | 96.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 158 | 39.2%62 W · 96 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95e1…b64dbacked Yes | 67c | 88.03$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49b7…b0b3backed Yes | 69c | 86.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…3f8ebacked Yes | 70c | 85.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b4…14c0backed Yes | 70c | 85.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked Yes | 70c | 82.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 68c | 76.75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 520 | 52.9%275 W · 245 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec9…8709backed Yes | 68c | 73.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3922…0670backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed Yes | 69c | 71.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…7453backed Yes | 69c | 69.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Yes | 70c | 64.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 113 | 64.6%73 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…8895backed Yes | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb772…0131backed Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Yes | 72c | 57.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.33per pick | 60cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Yes | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7305…0c7bbacked Yes | 67c | 56.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…c14abacked Yes | 69c | 50.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc7…fc33backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…d677backed Yes | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad71…43f5backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…a55ebacked Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…4c6cbacked Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…2804backed No | 35c | 38.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb16f…f169backed Yes | 73c | 35.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x605a…bf3bbacked Yes | 67c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x648e…e2fabacked Yes | 70c | 31.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04ca…3e70backed Yes | 70c | 30.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e94…db47backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 113 | 64.6%73 W · 40 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf20e…b694backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…0da7backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…3953backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e1…045bbacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d10…1112backed Yes | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…a15fbacked Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd31…6103backed Yes | 69c | 22.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +160%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfff4…c614backed Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…79e0backed Yes | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e58…4309backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -59%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6695…f6d7backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 65c | 17.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)Mauricio Ruffy won
- Will Michael Chandler win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.