UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb6c7ed33b51af10d4e25c4c6bd2d4019ae8c2467d0236aaa467bb9519875c77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 54c | 2,945$1,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,582.29 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 54c | 1,982$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.36 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Yes | 76c | 798.05$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.53 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 24c | 787.94$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.76 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 36c | 732.52$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.65 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 77c | 381.19$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.19 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 35c | 380.19$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.91 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x036b…ead4backed No | 23c | 371.69$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x605b…b479backed Yes | 77c | 277.16$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 24c | 256.63$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 211.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…0800backed No | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 31c | 157$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.86 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…79eebacked No | 35c | 105$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…a280backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bff…7cd6backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8f…d0e4backed Yes | 32c | 90.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 20cpaid | +168.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90d4…2deebacked Yes | 31c | 76.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.38per pick | 25cpaid | +174.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8d…2efebacked Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad71…43f5backed Yes | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ba…2404backed Yes | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d4…a2c5backed Yes | 76c | 47.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…e1d2backed Yes | 75c | 41.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f3…4e79backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 71 | 54.9%39 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…a55ebacked No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda09…16debacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ab…472bbacked Yes | 76c | 28.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 58c | 28.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc746…972fbacked Yes | 76c | 20.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe232…6ceabacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf78f…f98dbacked Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)Mauricio Ruffy won
- Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Michael Chandler win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.