Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14b231545ff55a01ff24c4a414c342554aed67411e603e3e41f2283434cd75f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 14c | 2,631$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.71 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,274$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,106.33 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 10c | 1,861$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,672.8 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…fb40backed No | 4c | 1,360$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 4c | 1,055$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 18c | 979.1$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.09 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 8c | 940$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.91 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1704…b0e1backed No | 26c | 929.34$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.01 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 7c | 710.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.72 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 8c | 573$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.59 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 14c | 508.96$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.74 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed No | 6c | 502.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 378.31$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.45 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcad1…7cf9backed Yes | 10c | 349.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.42 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…fa82backed No | 5c | 345.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 344.2$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.69 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 6c | 322.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.96 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.25 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 299.9$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 229.81$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.31 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 10c | 228.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.17 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 194.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.53 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 22c | 194.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…7c32backed Yes | 55c | 180.27$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.27 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 65c | 167.53$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.23 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 22c | 165.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 152.71$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked No | 39c | 133.93$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 74c | 130$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.55 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 59c | 111.14$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 16c | 103.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 100.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…9558backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.22 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed Yes | 28c | 96.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.73 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 65c | 93.63$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.58 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 66c | 90.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.71 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 12c | 89.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.95 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 78c | 87.47$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x654b…d007backed No | 17c | 75.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 64c | 72.12$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea7…1523backed Yes | 80c | 62.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 27c | 58.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 55.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 78c | 50.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…0b47backed Yes | 79c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed Yes | 66c | 30.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fd…8f03backed Yes | 80c | 28.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +145.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…0c9fbacked Yes | 53c | 21.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…813abacked Yes | 76c | 19.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…ebe0backed Yes | 76c | 19.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…2794backed Yes | 75c | 15.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.