Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81ce84d34ff77a4ec4fc3b13564a5989c5f0e44d507c0e18d3b667dec7f01084
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55be…fb40backed Yes | 0c | 4,646$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 8c | 1,154$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.98 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 578.18$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d5…d3a6backed Yes | 37c | 463.09$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 222.07$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 29c | 164.53$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 30c | 156.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 9c | 143.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 136.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 71c | 122.34$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 117.1$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 27c | 117.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 116.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 61c | 109.24$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 101.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 27c | 98.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 96.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 25c | 96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 34c | 92.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 74c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 33c | 78.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 35c | 71.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 71.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 71.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 64c | 71.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 44c | 68.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 60c | 68.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 27c | 65.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 62.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 31c | 61.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 68c | 59.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 35c | 59.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 60c | 56.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 55.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 70c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…e4d8backed Yes | 59c | 42.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 27c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 26c | 41.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 72c | 41.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…95ddbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 39.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 33c | 39.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 74c | 37.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d8…3c0cbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed No | 78c | 34.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 77c | 32.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 31.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d1…1030backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 60c | 29.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 80c | 25.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 67c | 25.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 64c | 21.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 64c | 21.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 68c | 21.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…c548backed No | 74c | 20.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 18.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.