Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14f4c9e628b5010baa479db46018eaf46c581580b260f7b2a55ba27792d3aff7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,531$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.97 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd999…64cfbacked Yes | 10c | 1,849$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,231$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8223…7cecbacked Yes | 2c | 1,223$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 9c | 646.54$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 10c | 557.78$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 78c | 535.49$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.16 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 525.28$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb81…6894backed Yes | 36c | 494.97$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 7c | 435.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 8c | 387.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 7c | 326.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes | 5c | 302.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 12c | 225.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 68c | 221.06$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.84 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 30c | 188.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 167.82$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 70c | 158.83$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.97 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 70c | 142.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 25c | 139.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 136.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed Yes | 10c | 104$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 19c | 92.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb50b…7a3ebacked Yes | 36c | 86.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 19c | 69.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 27c | 68.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 37c | 64.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 22c | 55.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18e…bf72backed Yes | 21c | 49.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 76c | 49.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 74c | 43.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 74c | 30.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 76c | 28.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 26.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.