Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffe86690f83ef6cf98030daca2e3d934d117ed38583943ecb4ee14cc9f7e82c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 26c | 2,371$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.37 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 1,195$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 4c | 1,130$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 28c | 973.74$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.98 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed No | 75c | 949.59$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.7 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 690.45$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.84 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 48c | 620.42$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 547.01$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.48 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 345.47$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.82 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 286.25$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.25 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 36c | 250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.22 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 20c | 249.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 245$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.29 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 48c | 236.86$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.1 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 234$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 221$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 40c | 192.75$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.69 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 71c | 181.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 180$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 177.71$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.66 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 172.98$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 22c | 166.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 160$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 157$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 55c | 150$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 37c | 147.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 26c | 147$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 142.72$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…e67cbacked Yes | 34c | 136.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 50c | 134.42$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 55c | 129.63$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.71 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 42c | 118.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…997dbacked Yes | 26c | 118.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 105.57$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…5f08backed Yes | 40c | 103.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 101.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…5a31backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 42c | 97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 69c | 82.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 35c | 78.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fe…6286backed Yes | 33c | 78.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 75c | 76.05$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 34c | 75.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 64c | 75.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 58c | 75.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 35c | 74.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 69c | 72.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 40c | 67.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 31c | 63.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 33c | 60.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 41c | 60.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 58.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 70c | 58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 58c | 56.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 37c | 54.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 44c | 53.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 38c | 51.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 39c | 50.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 45c | 50.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 72c | 48.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 39c | 46.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 66c | 45.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc14b…a589backed Yes | 32c | 43.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed Yes | 41c | 43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 42.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…e253backed Yes | 51c | 41.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 32c | 38.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 71c | 38.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…f1aabacked No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 37c | 32.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…f288backed Yes | 37c | 31.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed Yes | 56c | 29.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c6…7cb3backed Yes | 43c | 27.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 41c | 27.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 45c | 25.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 71c | 24.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51f…24e8backed No | 58c | 24.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 65c | 23.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked Yes | 48c | 21.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed No | 55c | 20.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.