Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc1fd06613966bcaa866b25a7c3e3417f752f42c24d108d350a8e4f43c2791b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Yes | 1c | 14,784$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.03 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 23c | 3,032$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.58 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 75c | 2,800$2,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.51 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed Yes | 1c | 1,119$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 44c | 1,034$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.71 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,031$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.17 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 21c | 968.91$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.08 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 56c | 750.63$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 77c | 736.33$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.25 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 691.54$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.85 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 677.21$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.48 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…b0c7backed Yes | 25c | 511$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.63 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +193.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd999…64cfbacked Yes | 29c | 496.33$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 34c | 382.76$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.96 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 37c | 368.61$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.63 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 15c | 338.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 305.21$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 79c | 300.05$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.22 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 67c | 277.95$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.12 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 65c | 266.28$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.7 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 33c | 254.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.05 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 27c | 250.35$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 245$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 25c | 245$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 54c | 232.62$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.14 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 24c | 202.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 73c | 198.56$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.24 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 183$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 171$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 21c | 168.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 151.63$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 69c | 135.77$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 9c | 134.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes | 20c | 128.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked No | 71c | 123.1$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 23c | 117.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked No | 46c | 113$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 48c | 112.04$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 39c | 110.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.68 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 34c | 108.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 72c | 103.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b11…a02dbacked Yes | 76c | 102.01$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 72c | 86.56$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.66 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 12c | 82.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 71c | 79.41$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 64c | 78.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 75c | 77.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.04 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 64c | 76.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 44c | 74.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 58c | 73.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 23c | 72.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 73c | 69.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 73c | 62.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 67c | 61.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 73c | 58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 28c | 57.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 34c | 54.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 23c | 54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 74c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 78c | 38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 59c | 33.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 40c | 32.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xae42…9235backed Yes | 61c | 31.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 72c | 28.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 77c | 27.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 49c | 21.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 48c | 21.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…b027backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 61c | 19.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe882…bf46backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.