Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0ae0edba3676a9823b4acc2c1b943e9f14cc01f5da03e7e3656801c1d3da913
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98a4…b64dbacked No | 79c | 1,761$1,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,394.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 30c | 1,438$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.01 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 30c | 863.26$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.94 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 861.66$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.36 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 26c | 834.2$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.79 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 808.47$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.15 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 604.73$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 15c | 567.02$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.12 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 29c | 457$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.26 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 15c | 401.97$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.93 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 400$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.94 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 24c | 388.95$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.31 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 6c | 349.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.6 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 40c | 328.56$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.56 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 53c | 292.5$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.77 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 19c | 288.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.05 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 257.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.48 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 245.72$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.34 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 245$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.49 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 63c | 228.45$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.92 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 70c | 210$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.16 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 60c | 203.48$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.87 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked No | 54c | 196$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -58%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 11c | 193.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.98 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 190$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 176$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.92 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 174.12$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 170.25$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 165.94$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 41c | 160.35$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.34 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x404d…84cdbacked Yes | 31c | 159.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.81 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 18c | 157.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 33c | 149.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.1 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 19c | 145.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.17 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…5f08backed Yes | 35c | 144.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.57 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 142$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.41 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.18 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 113$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.84 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…3f05backed Yes | 34c | 112.59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 45c | 112.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 70c | 110$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 108$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 107.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 56c | 106.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 16c | 105$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 102.23$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 20c | 102.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.81 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 16c | 101.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.67 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44fe…301dbacked Yes | 22c | 100.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +134.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 25c | 99.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.84 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 73c | 97.95$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 54c | 96.47$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…46e2backed No | 58c | 91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 30c | 86.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 14c | 84.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.64 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 32c | 84.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.06 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 68c | 78.04$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 27c | 77.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 65c | 76.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd01…e719backed Yes | 53c | 75.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 25c | 71.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 47c | 66.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 46c | 65.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 28c | 64.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 23c | 60.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 60.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 60c | 58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 20c | 57.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7103…c469backed No | 53c | 55.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 46c | 53.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 38c | 53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 67c | 50.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 43c | 48.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 23c | 48.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…f288backed Yes | 53c | 47.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 31c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 35c | 40.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 47c | 39.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…8fe9backed No | 70c | 38.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6c…a7f5backed Yes | 49c | 37.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6296…981cbacked Yes | 42c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 50c | 34.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 34c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked No | 71c | 28.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 46c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.