Tennis · resolved market
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15699f424887880d97525d8910ca01d13c8067675cf3e52fe08f82f90c80d951
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maks Kasnikowskiof Maks Kasnikowski, Lorenzo Giustino
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…ea3bbacked Lorenzo Giustino | 20c | 2,022$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.16 | 333 | 46.2%154 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…b30fbacked Lorenzo Giustino | 23c | 1,638$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 720 | 40.8%294 W · 426 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb5…7ce9backed Maks Kasnikowski | 79c | 1,588$1,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.48 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lorenzo Giustino | 22c | 1,470$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.52 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Maks Kasnikowski | 77c | 1,367$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.79 | 3,726 | 42.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L | -48.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Lorenzo Giustino | 18c | 1,315$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.79 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lorenzo Giustino | 17c | 1,052$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.83 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Lorenzo Giustino | 32c | 1,000$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.72 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Maks Kasnikowski | 78c | 923.49$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.52 | 3,155 | 57.2%1,806 W · 1,349 L | +176.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Maks Kasnikowski | 80c | 896.03$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.21 | 5,422 | 56.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L | +231.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9201…e578backed Maks Kasnikowski | 68c | 832.77$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.49 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Maks Kasnikowski | 66c | 681.81$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.82 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9c…cf78backed Lorenzo Giustino | 17c | 594.45$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 111 | 31.5%35 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Lorenzo Giustino | 17c | 466.22$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.66 | 4,474 | 51.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L | +133.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked Maks Kasnikowski | 66c | 450.53$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.18 | 1,475 | 35.2%519 W · 956 L | -14.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Lorenzo Giustino | 24c | 415.56$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.32 | 582 | 48.3%281 W · 301 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Lorenzo Giustino | 34c | 396.07$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.66 | 1,883 | 44.8%843 W · 1,040 L | +36.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Lorenzo Giustino | 33c | 365.79$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.31 | 1,688 | 45.4%766 W · 922 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eac…6c20backed Maks Kasnikowski | 67c | 316.76$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.76 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…84f9backed Maks Kasnikowski | 78c | 311.54$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed Lorenzo Giustino | 35c | 277.77$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.22 | 1,458 | 54%787 W · 671 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Lorenzo Giustino | 18c | 261.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d2…4a24backed Lorenzo Giustino | 16c | 231.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 529 | 10%53 W · 476 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Lorenzo Giustino | 21c | 220.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 6,574 | 46.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L | -45.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Lorenzo Giustino | 34c | 205.87$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Maks Kasnikowski | 79c | 202$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4824…0be2backed Lorenzo Giustino | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…0dedbacked Lorenzo Giustino | 15c | 164.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 585 | 39.5%231 W · 354 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…558bbacked Lorenzo Giustino | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked Maks Kasnikowski | 79c | 130$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Maks Kasnikowski | 71c | 112.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 4,602 | 67.8%3,119 W · 1,483 L | +309.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Lorenzo Giustino | 33c | 104.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a80…d472backed Lorenzo Giustino | 34c | 103.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,198 | 52.4%628 W · 570 L | +28.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Lorenzo Giustino | 31c | 102.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 5,498 | 48.5%2,667 W · 2,831 L | +10.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Maks Kasnikowski | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,632 | 52.7%860 W · 772 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8741…5b0abacked Lorenzo Giustino | 21c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Lorenzo Giustino | 34c | 79.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Maks Kasnikowski | 66c | 75.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 2,440 | 51.7%1,261 W · 1,179 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Maks Kasnikowski | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2b…0be8backed Maks Kasnikowski | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Lorenzo Giustino | 25c | 57.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Lorenzo Giustino | 31c | 57.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 599 | 65.8%394 W · 205 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Maks Kasnikowski | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 6,652 | 50.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L | +263.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0623…42d8backed Maks Kasnikowski | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…5befbacked Lorenzo Giustino | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Maks Kasnikowski | 66c | 46.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 1,022 | 57.8%591 W · 431 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Lorenzo Giustino | 34c | 36.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Maks Kasnikowski | 69c | 35.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 6,840 | 48.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L | +58.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Maks Kasnikowski | 66c | 35.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 1,580 | 42.3%668 W · 912 L | +18.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…2184backed Maks Kasnikowski | 75c | 33.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Maks Kasnikowski | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2554…bb52backed Maks Kasnikowski | 66c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d07…b9febacked Maks Kasnikowski | 71c | 27.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 320 | 8.8%28 W · 292 L | -15.3wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebb…e10cbacked Maks Kasnikowski | 79c | 26.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…3a77backed Maks Kasnikowski | 66c | 26.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Maks Kasnikowski | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 737 | 48%354 W · 383 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a20…d606backed Maks Kasnikowski | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 926 | 74.6%691 W · 235 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Maks Kasnikowski | 65c | 23.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Maks Kasnikowski | 63c | 22.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 857 | 49.7%426 W · 431 L | +22.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…900ebacked Maks Kasnikowski | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 103 | 68.9%71 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Maks Kasnikowski | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.