South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x158cbd74ca8997adb6c416bfc03ebec318d473d02bd2f1db9beee69478a6826b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- São Paulo FCof Fluminense FC, São Paulo FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Fluminense FC | 27c | 1,843$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.97 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed São Paulo FC | 72c | 1,250$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.96 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed São Paulo FC | 72c | 1,184$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.52 | 127 | 57.5%73 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed São Paulo FC | 68c | 1,171$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.07 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Fluminense FC | 28c | 505.1$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.43 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf529…755fbacked Fluminense FC | 28c | 370.17$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked São Paulo FC | 22c | 362.19$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.25 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Fluminense FC | 29c | 317.08$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.95 | 97 | 63.9%62 W · 35 L | +13.3wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed São Paulo FC | 26c | 225.15$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.61 | 206 | 65%134 W · 72 L | +24.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Fluminense FC | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Fluminense FC | 58c | 187.78$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.15 | 183 | 59%108 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Fluminense FC | 40c | 184.01$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.03 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…7453backed Fluminense FC | 30c | 169.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed São Paulo FC | 25c | 166.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.67 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked São Paulo FC | 72c | 160$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 153 | 59.5%91 W · 62 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Fluminense FC | 52c | 135$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Fluminense FC | 55c | 130.36$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.27 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Fluminense FC | 27c | 124.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Fluminense FC | 36c | 101.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Fluminense FC | 70c | 96$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.84 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +8.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Fluminense FC | 80c | 93.75$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed São Paulo FC | 27c | 86.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.02 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked São Paulo FC | 26c | 84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed São Paulo FC | 72c | 78$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed São Paulo FC | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 129 | 45%58 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Fluminense FC | 80c | 62.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed São Paulo FC | 75c | 57.37$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Fluminense FC | 27c | 53.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 218 | 44.5%97 W · 121 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd51…ce69backed Fluminense FC | 45c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb213…49e1backed Fluminense FC | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed São Paulo FC | 71c | 28.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked São Paulo FC | 67c | 20.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 292 | 45.2%132 W · 160 L | -24.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe534…7484backed Fluminense FC | 80c | 16.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed São Paulo FC | 74c | 15.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5)this page
- Fluminense FC vs. São Paulo FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Fluminense FC vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Fluminense FC vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-2.5)São Paulo FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.