South American Leagues · resolved market
Fluminense FC vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cc277e7e0f1bd9a9cfef4de40d6cfa834aa6c49712bdfbcaf8ea9db86f41a9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d95…fe91backed Under | 66c | 4,678$3,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,570.72 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 3,754$2,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.9 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 24c | 2,967$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.55 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 31c | 2,791$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.35 | 247 | 66%163 W · 84 L | +27.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 25c | 2,475$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.8 | 2,519 | 39%982 W · 1,537 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 27c | 1,444$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Under | 74c | 1,184$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.84 | 127 | 57.5%73 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf80…3259backed Over | 22c | 1,019$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.58 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Under | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…fa81backed Over | 35c | 961.96$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.75 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…0a9bbacked Under | 70c | 934.04$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.33 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 18c | 799.98$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 23c | 742.62$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.71 | 2,287 | 34.3%784 W · 1,503 L | -30.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 33c | 726.97$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 67c | 461.37$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.24 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad7c…6244backed Over | 22c | 450$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb42…eda0backed Over | 22c | 446.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 34c | 438.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0580…f78bbacked Under | 7c | 400$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 20c | 375.35$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.31 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 80c | 257.43$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.77 | 1,303 | 50.1%653 W · 650 L | -14.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 74c | 251.65$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.49 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…9904backed Over | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40d7…47cbbacked Over | 34c | 220.65$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.02 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4691…2a8abacked Over | 34c | 205.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 64c | 197.11$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.62 | 1,447 | 45.9%664 W · 783 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4db3…c1eabacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 18c | 169.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 78c | 160$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Under | 76c | 160$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 153 | 59.5%91 W · 62 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 78c | 159$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 1,655 | 50.6%838 W · 817 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 35c | 143.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 771 | 51.4%396 W · 375 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 270 | 31.5%85 W · 185 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 66c | 118.86$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.51 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 17c | 103.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e02…3667backed Under | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Under | 80c | 93.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f9…92e3backed Under | 74c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 129 | 45%58 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 13c | 77.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 42c | 71.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…8f93backed Under | 19c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc582…853cbacked Under | 19c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5087…2d85backed Over | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 80c | 55.59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…de52backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 42c | 47.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 724 | 50.6%366 W · 358 L | -24.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked Over | 32c | 46.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 39c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 35c | 43.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88bf…0933backed Under | 66c | 39.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4979…a668backed Over | 52c | 38.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa44…752abacked Under | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Under | 73c | 25.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf1…a604backed Over | 51c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Under | 54c | 21.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +6.7wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Under | 75c | 19.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee5f…6617backed Under | 74c | 19.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fluminense FC vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Fluminense FC vs. São Paulo FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Fluminense FC vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5)São Paulo FC won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-2.5)São Paulo FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.