MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x159d08de5b029dff014c98164b306fde3a26cd7cbdee80f2f179131ed265b092
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23c8…f293backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 9,152$3,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,766.04 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked San Diego Padres | 63c | 7,839$4,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,938.79 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 5,380$1,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,443.47 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4285…cfb5backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 2,775$1,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,776.25 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 2,036$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.33 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 1,616$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.44 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 1,415$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.36 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 1,267$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.44 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 392.42$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.27 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked San Diego Padres | 62c | 329.14$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.07 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 270$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.1 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 250.28$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.22 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 28c | 244.94$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.36 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 244.75$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.66 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3d…b570backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 209.22$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked San Diego Padres | 63c | 199.67$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.79 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…a3acbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 73c | 197.68$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 163.78$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.9 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 162.62$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 152.62$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.15 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…8314backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 125.24$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.15 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 123$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.72 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked San Diego Padres | 61c | 117.19$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.49 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 106.22$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.79 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 68c | 105.44$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 96.25$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 84.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 84.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 84.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 84.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 84.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 84.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 84.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 84.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 84.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 84.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 122 | 50.8%62 W · 60 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 84.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 84.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed San Diego Padres | 28c | 83.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 80.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 80.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 80.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 80.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x231f…254bbacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 76.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 76.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacce…f4e8backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 76.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 57.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked San Diego Padres | 36c | 51.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 50.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed San Diego Padres | 77c | 48.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked San Diego Padres | 66c | 47.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 45.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 41.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 38.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…acafbacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 38.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 37.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 307 | 50.2%154 W · 153 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 36.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 36.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 33.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 33.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed San Diego Padres | 69c | 22.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 20.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.