MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3faa6c80e3729edddfdc503a8ff485115f1b188a9f98377eea2f17c58930a4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 42c | 1,076$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.43 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 59c | 928.39$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.03 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 55c | 842.31$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.78 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 58c | 652.1$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.17 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba3…9a44backed Under | 11c | 600$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9309…c705backed Under | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4722…2abfbacked Under | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…db0bbacked Under | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Under | 43c | 269.32$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.81 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Under | 46c | 188.75$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.85 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 47c | 188.16$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.44 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 36c | 177.43$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.37 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 44c | 146.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.31 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 60c | 124.68$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.77 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 60c | 116.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.1 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e52…0ec9backed Under | 43c | 98.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 40c | 94.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 79.16$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 43c | 78.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 43c | 78.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad9…caefbacked Over | 44c | 76.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +5.2wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +49%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 26c | 75.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 63c | 61.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Under | 64c | 59.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…f2debacked Over | 36c | 59.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…e5a1backed Under | 43c | 59.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52cb…4007backed Under | 64c | 58.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked Under | 62c | 55.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 44.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 34c | 30.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Under | 66c | 29.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 64c | 22.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…180bbacked Over | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 54c | 20.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…3d64backed Under | 71c | 14.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.