TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: ex-RUSTEC vs SPARTA (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #5 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
SPARTAof ex-RUSTEC, SPARTA
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$92,686
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$99,722

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,686 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29b5…cc6cbacked ex-RUSTEC50c26,968$13,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,424.185,09555.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L+119.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed ex-RUSTEC49c12,308$6,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,079.412,64551.9%1,372 W · 1,273 L+21.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed SPARTA52c5,008$2,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,409.0717752.5%93 W · 84 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked SPARTA48c4,584$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,383.5577052.7%406 W · 364 L+28.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed SPARTA54c3,632$1,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,686.5723043.9%101 W · 129 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c40…80dfbacked SPARTA52c3,448$1,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,666.44757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed ex-RUSTEC36c3,174$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,142.41,43139%558 W · 873 L-41.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed SPARTA51c3,142$1,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,554.392,36545.4%1,074 W · 1,291 L-58.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd30…fc9bbacked SPARTA51c2,532$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,241.989443.6%41 W · 53 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f17…6001backed SPARTA62c2,384$1,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.77152.1%37 W · 34 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked SPARTA52c2,178$1,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.821,52351.5%785 W · 738 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x413f…47f3backed ex-RUSTEC38c2,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.991963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed ex-RUSTEC48c2,000$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.340341.7%168 W · 235 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed ex-RUSTEC47c1,768$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.521,65252.9%874 W · 778 L+60.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed ex-RUSTEC49c1,634$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.8547655%262 W · 214 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed ex-RUSTEC48c1,558$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75061055.9%341 W · 269 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed SPARTA49c1,550$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.491,42333.6%478 W · 945 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed ex-RUSTEC40c1,500$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.992,52743.1%1,088 W · 1,439 L+42.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb15…8393backed SPARTA50c1,303$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.721338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b17…d36dbacked SPARTA48c1,223$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.925731.6%18 W · 39 L-8.5wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-36.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed ex-RUSTEC49c1,220$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.482,03053.7%1,091 W · 939 L+6.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked SPARTA52c1,218$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.041,16748.2%562 W · 605 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x787f…d40cbacked SPARTA53c1,190$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.1128440.5%115 W · 169 L-17.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2405…e055backed ex-RUSTEC49c1,128$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.5915948.4%77 W · 82 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed SPARTA55c1,115$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.391,04153.1%553 W · 488 L+63.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed SPARTA49c1,035$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.812346.3%57 W · 66 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked SPARTA62c939.45$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.695,58047.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L+47.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed ex-RUSTEC36c900$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.257740.4%233 W · 344 L+1.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7029…1136backed SPARTA49c851.89$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.4621351.2%109 W · 104 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99d6…513fbacked SPARTA48c838.6$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.071330.8%4 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.24per pick55cpaid-48.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8a3b…aa7dbacked SPARTA50c798.19$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.48743.7%38 W · 49 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked SPARTA50c795.25$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.9825046.8%117 W · 133 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7374…38ffbacked SPARTA73c794.5$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.54650%23 W · 23 L-5.4wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x68e9…845cbacked ex-RUSTEC31c787.15$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24730236.8%111 W · 191 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x97f9…0aebbacked SPARTA51c777$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.783557.1%20 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7797…7ddcbacked SPARTA53c776$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.112070%14 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+32%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x49ea…36cdbacked SPARTA50c763$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.51788.2%15 W · 2 L+4.8wins+0.28per pick60cpaid+49.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x53d3…cc48backed SPARTA51c759.83$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.542236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-43.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed SPARTA50c702.9$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.6264748.4%313 W · 334 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed ex-RUSTEC42c662.5$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.55,87637.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L+71.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c70…9168backed SPARTA49c606.1$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.112548%12 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73bf…8475backed SPARTA50c603.76$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.88728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-43.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked ex-RUSTEC39c580.35$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.162,67247.8%1,277 W · 1,395 L-31.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc386…386fbacked ex-RUSTEC44c570$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.826245.4%119 W · 143 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+30.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked SPARTA53c565.74$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.543,54429.3%1,037 W · 2,507 L-289.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x81a8…9c69backed SPARTA49c554$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.546651.5%34 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fd8…ce32backed SPARTA50c550$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2751060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+29.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff7e…8a0fbacked SPARTA51c500$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.591030%3 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick55cpaid-50%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb9e7…0365backed SPARTA52c484$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.321553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfce…5c3ebacked SPARTA54c482.41$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.918537.6%32 W · 53 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1614…0bedbacked ex-RUSTEC50c436.18$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.0910136.6%37 W · 64 L-10.4wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-22%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xec04…1bcebacked SPARTA51c427.55$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.5812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.34per pick47cpaid-75.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed SPARTA56c418$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.522,55441.3%1,054 W · 1,500 L-116.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed ex-RUSTEC25c417.75$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1052,45644.5%1,093 W · 1,363 L-67.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83c4…3212backed ex-RUSTEC48c417.61$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20032461.4%199 W · 125 L+23.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0ff3…9b05backed ex-RUSTEC50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003455.9%19 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid+10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe821…3128backed SPARTA76c393.19$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.192763%17 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed SPARTA49c390.96$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.3961654.9%338 W · 278 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed SPARTA51c375.48$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.7411540.9%47 W · 68 L-13.1wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-27.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed ex-RUSTEC39c367.17$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.9972645.6%331 W · 395 L-21.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76af…25c3backed SPARTA50c357.9$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.174641.3%19 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked SPARTA51c344.1$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.619537.9%36 W · 59 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe466…6938backed SPARTA53c343.4$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed ex-RUSTEC37c340.01$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.3142854.9%235 W · 193 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc754…4b1dbacked SPARTA49c333.16$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.9934340.8%140 W · 203 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ade…fb15backed SPARTA50c330.75$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.3819748.7%96 W · 101 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebba…b399backed SPARTA50c330.28$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.14250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked SPARTA50c327$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.4439338.2%150 W · 243 L-13.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23d6…e7acbacked SPARTA58c310$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.52352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked SPARTA72c304.53$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.564,75443.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L-85.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed SPARTA51c299.67$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.081,00748.5%488 W · 519 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef88…d62cbacked ex-RUSTEC47c299$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.531735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-42.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1123…9e89backed ex-RUSTEC52c291.24$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0e4…dd38backed ex-RUSTEC31c285.97$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.7143457.1%248 W · 186 L+20.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed SPARTA70c279.35$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.814,09951%2,091 W · 2,008 L+74.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked ex-RUSTEC31c276.07$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.11,89041.9%791 W · 1,099 L-71.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed SPARTA74c270.27$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.2740558.8%238 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42db…3816backed SPARTA50c270$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1352123.8%5 W · 16 L-4.4wins-0.21per pick45cpaid-42.2%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed SPARTA51c268.84$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.2837848.1%182 W · 196 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x054e…9b8fbacked SPARTA51c268.63$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.63540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75c7…fcccbacked ex-RUSTEC52c258.85$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.1920444.1%90 W · 114 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e20…e3c8backed SPARTA53c257.1$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.037245.8%33 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked ex-RUSTEC30c255.72$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.932,19543.1%946 W · 1,249 L-68.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed SPARTA51c246.76$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.0618536.2%67 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb997…faacbacked SPARTA67c230.14$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.7720553.2%109 W · 96 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed ex-RUSTEC26c221$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.131,12142.5%476 W · 645 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed SPARTA52c218.5$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.7949952.3%261 W · 238 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x267c…5bfdbacked SPARTA50c215.48$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.7418055%99 W · 81 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3783…171dbacked SPARTA50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10024962.2%155 W · 94 L+22.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+22.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed ex-RUSTEC50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10038049.5%188 W · 192 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed SPARTA50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10033844.4%150 W · 188 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ba9…a8d8backed SPARTA60c198$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.2440666.3%269 W · 137 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f46…a7e1backed SPARTA49c183.67$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.67862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+33.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1efb…dd8abacked SPARTA50c177.52$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.767946.8%37 W · 42 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked ex-RUSTEC30c169.08$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.62,14347.3%1,013 W · 1,130 L-61.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cd3…226ebacked ex-RUSTEC20c164.84$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5538421.9%84 W · 300 L-44.9wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-48.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked SPARTA56c163.75$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.132,39742.7%1,023 W · 1,374 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked SPARTA65c160$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.121,39752.4%732 W · 665 L+30.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed SPARTA67c159.72$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.6970060.1%421 W · 279 L+70.2wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9ac8…f0a3backed SPARTA52c158.88$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.68560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.