NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bulls (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15b46a9bd70d04f9c3aa7bcc4030cb404c3c1efefe133a72a2f2a87efdf5d7e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Bulls, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bulls | 52c | 44,006$22,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,768.16 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hornets | 48c | 12,500$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,500 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Hornets | 48c | 10,050$4,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,226 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hornets | 48c | 8,905$4,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,619.13 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…3782backed Bulls | 51c | 6,787$3,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,461.59 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hornets | 49c | 6,057$2,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,099.37 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Hornets | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Bulls | 51c | 4,867$2,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,482.21 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Hornets | 49c | 3,819$1,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,947.45 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Hornets | 48c | 3,617$1,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880.67 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Bulls | 53c | 3,001$1,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590.53 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Hornets | 47c | 2,772$1,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,469.31 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Hornets | 48c | 2,060$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.2 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bulls | 51c | 1,906$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.67 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Hornets | 49c | 1,838$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.38 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Hornets | 48c | 1,779$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.17 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c7…2e93backed Hornets | 50c | 1,400$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.31 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a9…45ffbacked Hornets | 50c | 1,130$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565 | 238 | 50%119 W · 119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Hornets | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Hornets | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 193 | 51.8%100 W · 93 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Hornets | 49c | 445.52$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.22 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Hornets | 49c | 354$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.54 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hornets | 51c | 284.99$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.48 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Hornets | 49c | 255.1$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.1 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8df…6df7backed Hornets | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Hornets | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb938…f398backed Bulls | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed Bulls | 51c | 175.33$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.42 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…35b6backed Hornets | 48c | 164.81$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.7 | 153 | 48.4%74 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9669…8ae2backed Hornets | 50c | 120.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Bulls | 53c | 108.83$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Hornets | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked Hornets | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Bulls | 52c | 96.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Hornets | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06d5…0417backed Hornets | 49c | 81.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 340 | 50.3%171 W · 169 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Bulls | 51c | 80.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Bulls | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Hornets | 47c | 76.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Hornets | 49c | 76.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Hornets | 73c | 76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…3f14backed Hornets | 49c | 63.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Hornets | 48c | 61.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 762 | 50.4%384 W · 378 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…ed59backed Hornets | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd243…2dcfbacked Hornets | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Bulls | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x394a…536ebacked Bulls | 52c | 55.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Hornets | 48c | 55.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Hornets | 49c | 51.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Hornets | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Hornets | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Hornets | 38c | 47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Hornets | 47c | 46.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…7afcbacked Bulls | 52c | 40.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Bulls | 51c | 29.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7590…d6e0backed Bulls | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc21c…1c36backed Bulls | 53c | 28.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Bulls | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5373…e46bbacked Hornets | 49c | 25.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Hornets | 48c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 448 | 44.2%198 W · 250 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Hornets | 49c | 20.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Hornets | 49c | 20.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Bulls | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bulls (-1.5)this page
- Hornets vs. BullsHornets won
- Hornets vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Hornets vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5Under won
- Spread: Bulls (-2.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.