TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hornets vs. Bulls

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hornetsof Hornets, Bulls
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,279,598
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,389,466

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,279,598 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 740 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Hornets46c239,110$109,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129,161.287144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Bulls53c133,415$70,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70,623.392,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b6c…6305backed Bulls54c110,794$59,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,476.327941.8%33 W · 46 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Hornets48c82,000$39,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,64048343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Bulls54c79,272$42,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,806.931,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Bulls53c54,997$29,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,043.621,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Bulls1c54,900$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.1564517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Hornets47c42,195$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,194.5176746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Bulls31c34,070$10,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,706.761,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x906f…88b4backed Hornets47c30,060$14,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,931.6322453.1%119 W · 105 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Bulls54c21,800$11,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,77259347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Hornets46c20,000$9,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,8001,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Hornets38c16,421$6,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,106.8827865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Hornets38c14,159$5,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,764.894,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Hornets66c13,006$8,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,393.273,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Hornets62c11,708$7,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,425.365,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Bulls27c11,354$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,10025925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Bulls54c10,200$5,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,507.132,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x062a…c2a3backed Hornets47c10,010$4,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,305.319048.4%92 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed Bulls53c10,000$5,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,30021951.1%112 W · 107 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bd6…918ebacked Bulls1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006811.8%8 W · 60 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Hornets46c10,000$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,399.981,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Bulls52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,199.971,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65cd…1e0bbacked Hornets46c10,000$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,399.933745.9%17 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Bulls0c9,665$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.548820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Bulls53c9,540$5,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,056.213455.2%74 W · 60 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Hornets43c8,751$3,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,958.421,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls54c8,017$4,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,329.186,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hornets45c6,787$3,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,745.978,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Bulls0c6,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Hornets47c6,383$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,382.9821944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35bd…1ecfbacked Hornets46c6,000$2,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,239.9514945.6%68 W · 81 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8b…77d4backed Bulls53c5,999$3,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,191.6811244.6%50 W · 62 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hornets46c5,974$2,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,215.29,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Bulls55c5,920$3,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,255.781,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x478f…f5d9backed Bulls54c5,556$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00022035.5%78 W · 142 L-11.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Hornets45c5,490$2,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,019.4929245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Bulls54c5,400$2,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,91662351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f17…1c37backed Hornets46c5,308$2,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,866.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Bulls54c5,130$2,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,770.3536741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8041…c749backed Bulls53c5,126$2,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,716.74250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7412…85d0backed Bulls54c5,095$2,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,731.9526544.9%119 W · 146 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Bulls24c5,064$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,212.471,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Hornets46c5,000$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7008846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Hornets46c5,000$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,699.9945348.1%218 W · 235 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Hornets47c4,982$2,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,640.434,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44f5…7c17backed Bulls53c4,871$2,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,581.4220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Hornets61c4,745$2,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,854.679640.6%39 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x751a…52fdbacked Hornets46c4,686$2,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,530.46250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Hornets45c4,602$2,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,516.4185344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Hornets47c4,538$2,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,405.1419560%117 W · 78 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x360d…5e0fbacked Bulls55c4,087$2,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2482454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Bulls53c4,000$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,12078445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Bulls53c3,769$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00040041.5%166 W · 234 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Hornets47c3,148$1,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,671.252,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Hornets29c3,007$884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,122.250838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Bulls54c2,791$1,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,507.1492753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe500…4b37backed Bulls48c2,679$1,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,278.2719756.3%111 W · 86 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Hornets47c2,635$1,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,407.3830947.6%147 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Hornets47c2,563$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,362.852,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Hornets46c2,508$1,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,354.461,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x494e…c549backed Bulls57c2,500$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,42511836.4%43 W · 75 L-12.3wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-20.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Hornets46c2,500$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3501,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc127…66e9backed Hornets45c2,500$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,37511657.8%67 W · 49 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+18.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Hornets47c2,457$1,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,312.791,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bulls48c2,454$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,167.362,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Hornets53c2,381$1,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,107.173,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24d8…e8a8backed Hornets55c2,331$1,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.2113260.6%80 W · 52 L+14.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd538…cc31backed Bulls54c2,268$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.7821450%107 W · 107 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d56…7486backed Hornets47c2,268$1,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,202.117861.2%109 W · 69 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb45…4bd4backed Bulls55c2,251$1,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.32250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3107…63b9backed Hornets78c2,240$1,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.84757.4%27 W · 20 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick68cpaid-19.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe04c…83b0backed Hornets45c2,240$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2321100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6da…7e3ebacked Hornets48c2,188$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,137.54932.7%16 W · 33 L-11.2wins-0.23per pick55cpaid-45.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Bulls39c2,159$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.951,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Hornets46c2,108$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.3424650%123 W · 123 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Bulls40c2,009$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.7334227.2%93 W · 249 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Bulls35c2,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70042640.4%172 W · 254 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Hornets47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,06015844.9%71 W · 87 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5694…6052backed Bulls1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1017650.6%89 W · 87 L+0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Hornets47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,06049142.6%209 W · 282 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Bulls71c2,000$1,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,429.991,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Bulls49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.9815247.4%72 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Hornets47c1,862$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.452,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b60…82e5backed Bulls55c1,830$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.5650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Bulls1c1,795$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.968783%26 W · 852 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4536…693cbacked Hornets45c1,779$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3107…723abacked Hornets47c1,500$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7951361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+44.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Hornets28c1,500$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.9937930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Hornets54c1,500$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.51,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Bulls54c1,498$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.1517931.8%57 W · 122 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2eef…266fbacked Hornets46c1,478$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.266561.5%40 W · 25 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+24.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Hornets46c1,467$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.182,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf33…261fbacked Bulls7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017420.1%35 W · 139 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x816b…d69dbacked Hornets70c1,401$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.4624752.6%130 W · 117 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Hornets50c1,391$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.285,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a2b…ae0cbacked Hornets46c1,348$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.8313663.2%86 W · 50 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Bulls42c1,340$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56134524.3%84 W · 261 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8df…6df7backed Hornets46c1,329$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.797745.5%35 W · 42 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58d4…08d2backed Hornets46c1,325$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.51850%9 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.