TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs Nova Esports (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act 1 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FunPlus Phoenixof FunPlus Phoenix, Nova Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,233

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,233 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde04…fa37backed FunPlus Phoenix69c3,105$2,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.2141537.1%154 W · 261 L-26.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Nova Esports39c1,750$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.4941734.8%145 W · 272 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed FunPlus Phoenix61c1,732$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.3933759.6%201 W · 136 L+18.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed FunPlus Phoenix61c1,615$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.55728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-57.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked FunPlus Phoenix61c1,549$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59717353.8%93 W · 80 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Nova Esports28c1,493$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.615553.5%83 W · 72 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed FunPlus Phoenix61c1,352$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.253447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nova Esports39c1,135$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.1434847.4%165 W · 183 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed Nova Esports38c1,056$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.471163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+59.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked FunPlus Phoenix60c911.47$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.2812850%64 W · 64 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed Nova Esports42c859.98$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.191154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0133…64bcbacked FunPlus Phoenix79c795.22$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.44250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Nova Esports38c637.25$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.524153.7%22 W · 19 L+5.2wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+29%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x69db…283abacked Nova Esports31c622.66$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.536138.5%139 W · 222 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Nova Esports41c471.08$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.4727546.2%127 W · 148 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1bf…f357backed FunPlus Phoenix61c465.09$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.311010%1 W · 9 L-3.6wins-0.36per pick46cpaid-83.6%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Nova Esports39c400$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1542213.6%3 W · 19 L-4.5wins-0.21per pick34cpaid-63.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked FunPlus Phoenix59c389.89$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.4561035.9%219 W · 391 L-17.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Nova Esports40c345.12$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.893638.9%14 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa11d…72a8backed FunPlus Phoenix59c340$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.43246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x803f…b6b3backed Nova Esports24c319.49$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfde…258abacked Nova Esports23c304.66$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Nova Esports16c285.26$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.891,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed Nova Esports41c253$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.6715942.1%67 W · 92 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3001…4ac2backed Nova Esports20c248$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+189.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x820b…d27abacked Nova Esports44c244.95$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.9710743%46 W · 61 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04ec…8ac9backed Nova Esports38c235.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.681520%3 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick31cpaid+1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Nova Esports29c225.29$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9670251.3%360 W · 342 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8a7…203fbacked FunPlus Phoenix64c223.54$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.032842.9%12 W · 16 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-28%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Nova Esports21c207.43$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.931,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Nova Esports19c200$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3788844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecaa…a779backed Nova Esports40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801060%6 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+148.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked FunPlus Phoenix53c199.97$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.9986747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Nova Esports17c198.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9327411.3%31 W · 243 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87b8…29dcbacked FunPlus Phoenix56c180$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.2616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick49cpaid-70.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x701f…9b8fbacked FunPlus Phoenix56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.57757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Nova Esports16c176.92$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.346326.6%123 W · 340 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcdad…9eaebacked Nova Esports43c172.98$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.387145.1%32 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa72e…3db9backed FunPlus Phoenix59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.492147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed FunPlus Phoenix61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.932638.5%10 W · 16 L-4.9wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-38%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf91c…eb82backed FunPlus Phoenix61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.932552%13 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed FunPlus Phoenix71c161.65$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.8814252.8%75 W · 67 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed Nova Esports22c157.73$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.281361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x363e…ae45backed FunPlus Phoenix80c155.95$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.761942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked FunPlus Phoenix73c153.51$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.381,37647.1%648 W · 728 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked FunPlus Phoenix77c148.82$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.259238%35 W · 57 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-30%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed FunPlus Phoenix59c141.5$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.0253442.1%225 W · 309 L-15.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed Nova Esports22c138.13$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.069845.9%45 W · 53 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Nova Esports40c127.77$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.669037.8%34 W · 56 L-5.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-19%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bdd…1b11backed Nova Esports39c125.8$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496346%29 W · 34 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+16.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked FunPlus Phoenix76c125$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.178837.5%33 W · 55 L-7.9wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-30.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Nova Esports42c119.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6160154.2%326 W · 275 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed Nova Esports31c116$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.48345.8%38 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked FunPlus Phoenix76c112.27$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9315334.6%53 W · 100 L-14.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5a22…2317backed Nova Esports40c104.05$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.621741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked FunPlus Phoenix75c103$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3210840.7%44 W · 64 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e0e…8763backed FunPlus Phoenix66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.111056.4%62 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Nova Esports21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215453.7%29 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed FunPlus Phoenix64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-2.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3e5b…0324backed FunPlus Phoenix55c99.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4512151.2%62 W · 59 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Nova Esports21c95.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4757517.7%102 W · 473 L-71.7wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1a35…6fe0backed Nova Esports45c93$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8515642.3%66 W · 90 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29f8…ffa9backed Nova Esports36c93$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.666949.3%34 W · 35 L+5.4wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed FunPlus Phoenix62c91.12$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.814652.1%76 W · 70 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc10a…46b5backed FunPlus Phoenix74c90$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Nova Esports37c89.2$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.363652.7%335 W · 301 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1349…dc1fbacked FunPlus Phoenix62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.651741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-26.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed Nova Esports40c80$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.610749.5%53 W · 54 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a0c…3ccebacked Nova Esports24c76.92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.617352.1%38 W · 35 L+7.8wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+28.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Nova Esports28c76.32$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2140254.7%220 W · 182 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d91…c930backed FunPlus Phoenix73c75.9$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3321257.1%121 W · 91 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3437…1e5ebacked Nova Esports42c71.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0386…2b1abacked Nova Esports21c71.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9917039.4%67 W · 103 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe320…e0c5backed Nova Esports24c70$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed FunPlus Phoenix76c67$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.064632.6%15 W · 31 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-39.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked FunPlus Phoenix59c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.633753.1%179 W · 158 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1769…94efbacked FunPlus Phoenix55c60$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276841.2%28 W · 40 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Nova Esports19c57.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1214957.7%86 W · 63 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x24e3…7311backed FunPlus Phoenix54c55.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.561850%9 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed FunPlus Phoenix77c55.41$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7910959.6%65 W · 44 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa085…7fccbacked Nova Esports37c53.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011153.2%59 W · 52 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x155b…d7babacked Nova Esports19c53$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0815754.1%85 W · 72 L+8.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed Nova Esports28c51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2711843.2%51 W · 67 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc255…68f8backed FunPlus Phoenix79c50.36$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Nova Esports41c49.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.514037.9%53 W · 87 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x88ed…8300backed FunPlus Phoenix61c49.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.184100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+82.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe098…5b74backed Nova Esports38c42$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed FunPlus Phoenix62c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.411446.5%53 W · 61 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0caa…b2bdbacked FunPlus Phoenix58c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9314959.7%89 W · 60 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b5c…ab22backed Nova Esports32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.862445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x476b…8a58backed FunPlus Phoenix63c35.37$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.076669.7%46 W · 20 L+6.4wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6fc0…8f18backed Nova Esports40c35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145834.5%20 W · 38 L-5.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-23.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5337…222bbacked FunPlus Phoenix59c33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.472850%14 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a93…f6dfbacked Nova Esports42c30.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.93425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed FunPlus Phoenix59c30.51$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.578234.1%28 W · 54 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54d1…e456backed FunPlus Phoenix69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.992100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+146%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb39c…7cbfbacked FunPlus Phoenix72c27.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.78666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked Nova Esports43c26.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.587142.3%30 W · 41 L-8.3wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-25.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdf58…711fbacked FunPlus Phoenix54c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.53040%12 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-35.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xae9a…7ceabacked FunPlus Phoenix60c21.37$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.55666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.