TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Nationals vs. Orioles

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nationalsof Nationals, Orioles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$152,971
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$155,970

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,971 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe5fb…84b5backed Nationals47c29,623$14,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,623.026157.4%35 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Orioles54c20,583$11,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,114.6627948.4%135 W · 144 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e1…77bfbacked Orioles53c15,570$8,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,244.7415553.5%83 W · 72 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b5e…83f8backed Orioles53c15,000$7,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,902.9514747.6%70 W · 77 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Nationals46c11,857$5,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,402.5344456.5%251 W · 193 L+21.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nationals31c10,450$3,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,210.42,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Orioles62c5,673$3,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,517.1154048.3%261 W · 279 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Orioles53c5,000$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,649.9941850%209 W · 209 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Nationals46c4,755$2,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,587.2115745.2%71 W · 86 L-0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1752…7993backed Nationals27c3,808$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,784.3713262.9%83 W · 49 L+12.0wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+93.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Nationals46c3,708$1,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,994.851,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Nationals46c2,888$1,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.6833554%181 W · 154 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Nationals35c2,743$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,772.11,20344.2%532 W · 671 L+20.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07cb…743cbacked Nationals54c2,708$1,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,252.8511357.5%65 W · 48 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14e3…ce1fbacked Orioles53c2,453$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300.355349.1%26 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+7.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Nationals44c2,320$1,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,306.471,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Orioles61c2,318$1,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,406.489,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Orioles61c1,822$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,104.9486751.8%449 W · 418 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbedb…8687backed Nationals50c1,116$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.168457.1%48 W · 36 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Nationals58c1,049$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.751,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Orioles53c1,021$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.2860249.5%298 W · 304 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Nationals47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5301,25052.2%653 W · 597 L-5.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Nationals49c971.45$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.0579740.4%322 W · 475 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Nationals38c962.77$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.551,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Nationals46c854.93$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.8688549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Nationals49c836$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.369245.7%42 W · 50 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c4a…15c7backed Nationals49c828.57$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.576753.7%36 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Orioles54c800$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43226453.8%142 W · 122 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Nationals48c786.03$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.733644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f9a…06d0backed Nationals47c638.3$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.317866.3%118 W · 60 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Nationals47c600$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31868656.4%387 W · 299 L+38.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc84…3e67backed Nationals34c579.84$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.846645.5%30 W · 36 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Nationals69c500$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.42,20350.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L+29.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nationals47c455.1$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.22,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nationals47c425.53$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.532,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd33b…4e00backed Orioles52c359.62$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1879854.1%53 W · 45 L+8.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x58db…ea03backed Nationals30c333.33$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.3312347.2%58 W · 65 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf980…6528backed Orioles51c331.39$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.0111746.2%54 W · 63 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76b5…c1cebacked Nationals66c298.67$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.479157.1%52 W · 39 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2920…80bebacked Nationals47c297.87$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.8723852.9%126 W · 112 L-0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Orioles50c252.22$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.115,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Nationals46c215.53$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.532,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Nationals46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10893240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Orioles54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10833852.1%176 W · 162 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Orioles54c150$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816132.8%20 W · 41 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4010…9236backed Orioles53c132.08$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703743.2%16 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Nationals46c127$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.5811456.1%64 W · 50 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbcf…d6a9backed Orioles54c120.99$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.332864.3%18 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40a3…6ed8backed Orioles18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77c5…9a0ebacked Nationals38c108.98$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.0670841.4%293 W · 415 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26e9…4a51backed Nationals47c106.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3810940.4%44 W · 65 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Nationals48c105.77$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.21,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Nationals49c102.48$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2680955.5%449 W · 360 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5fe…5f6fbacked Nationals47c100.9$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.252548%12 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7cb…b857backed Orioles54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543865.8%25 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4447…a0e7backed Nationals46c99.98$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.997451.4%38 W · 36 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Nationals26c96.15$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.151,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b2c…284cbacked Orioles52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5028453.9%153 W · 131 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4a4…932dbacked Orioles54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503636.1%13 W · 23 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-22.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe21…0c36backed Orioles55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Nationals36c86.65$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.4263942.7%273 W · 366 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e42…9003backed Nationals46c85$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.943250.7%219 W · 213 L+10.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Nationals38c81.12$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4197950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked Nationals46c73$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4251955.3%287 W · 232 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x05a4…1e85backed Nationals40c68.41$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.7380680%645 W · 161 L+173.6wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+34.7%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x91d5…e85ebacked Orioles52c64.38$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.48742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Nationals45c62.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.641,46644.1%647 W · 819 L+44.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Orioles52c56.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5241643.8%182 W · 234 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2966…4e4ebacked Orioles54c55.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.941540%6 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-31%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa337…9e54backed Nationals47c53.19$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1994455.3%522 W · 422 L-2.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ba3…269ebacked Nationals29c51.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.72650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3a6…1a6ebacked Nationals47c51.06$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.061040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea27…8a0bbacked Nationals22c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef63…96cbbacked Nationals48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2646753.7%251 W · 216 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Nationals47c49.36$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.162,04553.8%1,100 W · 945 L+32.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02c7…3df7backed Orioles55c45.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2555152.5%289 W · 262 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Nationals46c43.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4838245.5%174 W · 208 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x069c…96e4backed Nationals47c42.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.553925.6%10 W · 29 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e0…1e88backed Orioles63c41.29$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0154441.2%224 W · 320 L-22.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Orioles54c40.97$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1249450%247 W · 247 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ab…d681backed Nationals50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2074356.9%423 W · 320 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Nationals45c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2241751.3%214 W · 203 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…e065backed Nationals50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+37.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4884…9b0abacked Nationals49c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.539246.7%43 W · 49 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f19…72d9backed Nationals48c39.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7941649%204 W · 212 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x683f…6473backed Nationals46c37.91$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.471957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce9…7a2cbacked Orioles54c37.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020645.1%93 W · 113 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33e4…7632backed Nationals50c34.56$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.281758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a9f…3cc5backed Nationals47c33$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.491963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x99e8…45c4backed Nationals47c32.4$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.171250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf211…01eabacked Nationals47c31.21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.541464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefa6…4da4backed Nationals47c31.21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.541957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x972b…59f5backed Orioles55c31.13$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.121855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb5b…6fc4backed Nationals49c31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.81862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc29…c1c1backed Orioles51c31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.811250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3c…9ed9backed Nationals65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.771250%6 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xedd3…653bbacked Nationals50c30.34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.171361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8065…4950backed Nationals50c30.26$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.131850%9 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x81a8…b1bfbacked Orioles55c30.13$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.57147.1%1 W · 13 L-5.8wins-0.41per pick49cpaid-84.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x53ed…7aeabacked Nationals43c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.151353.8%7 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.