MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15ea6c64635c367de08733a390f0760196e3583cd45142b66c70448d7cc899ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c55…97d4backed Under | 63c | 3,544$2,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,222 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 37c | 2,402$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,512.31 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…cd14backed Under | 6c | 1,600$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +393.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…d922backed Under | 6c | 1,600$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 7cpaid | +162.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcff0…fa1abacked Under | 7c | 1,302$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.09 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 19c | 799.31$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.43 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Under | 6c | 625$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Under | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Under | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Under | 8c | 234.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 24c | 136.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.69 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 38c | 134.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.19 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 11c | 127.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 9c | 126$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +11.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 71c | 59.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 31c | 37.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 62c | 36.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 38c | 36.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 40c | 35.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 40c | 34.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…5144backed Under | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -7.2wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 30.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 38c | 26.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 47c | 25.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x967b…46babacked Under | 61c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 59c | 17.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh PiratesColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.