MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a164eede8a98c3502ed3b0b7a13ecbf2f773d9077176000231e00b39755f37c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 31c | 4,969$1,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,533.82 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies | 68c | 4,784$3,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,542.47 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 1,560$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.19 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 1,536$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.28 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 1,107$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Colorado Rockies | 54c | 943.4$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.28 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Colorado Rockies | 55c | 900$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Colorado Rockies | 55c | 679.97$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.99 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Colorado Rockies | 55c | 610.37$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.67 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Colorado Rockies | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 435$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.1 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…f08abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 386.09$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…858cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 326.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 218.82$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.47 | 197 | 52.3%103 W · 94 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Colorado Rockies | 44c | 197$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.06 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 155.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Colorado Rockies | 55c | 146.71$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.02 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…91aabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 113.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 105$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 77.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Colorado Rockies | 55c | 75.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…f14dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 16c | 68.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Colorado Rockies | 44c | 67.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 64.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 61.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Colorado Rockies | 55c | 60.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 21c | 57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 55.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 49.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…ec82backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 44.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 215 | 54.9%118 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Colorado Rockies | 55c | 37.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…ba49backed Colorado Rockies | 56c | 33.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Colorado Rockies | 75c | 28.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Colorado Rockies | 42c | 26.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Colorado Rockies | 55c | 21.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Colorado Rockies | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh PiratesColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.