MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f2f11775bbc9088cf00a713186163fbb731ce737a45b6db85b346824aefb8a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f70…ce77backed Under | 7c | 4,395$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.4 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcff0…fa1abacked Under | 8c | 3,350$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Under | 4c | 1,205$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…001dbacked Under | 11c | 1,100$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +131%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x845a…37acbacked Under | 12c | 799.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 52c | 621.46$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.3 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…cd14backed Under | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +393.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…d922backed Under | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 7cpaid | +162.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x191a…b47dbacked Under | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…39c0backed Under | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 355.53$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.27 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Under | 17c | 299.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 67c | 290.95$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.56 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 18c | 266.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 244.18$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.97 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 48c | 241$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.68 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Under | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167f…fa5ebacked Under | 24c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +60%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 51c | 185.3$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 57c | 175.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.41 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Under | 15c | 163$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 75c | 161.65$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Under | 31c | 161.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2003…af6fbacked Over | 17c | 130$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.9 | 124 | 46%57 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 16c | 128$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +11.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…7237backed Under | 40c | 121.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 49c | 118.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.16 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 39c | 104.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 51c | 100.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Under | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 99 | 39.4%39 W · 60 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa440…c249backed Under | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Under | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 47c | 99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Under | 27c | 83.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Under | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4b…556bbacked Under | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 48c | 57.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Over | 47c | 50.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Under | 33c | 48.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 335 | 15.5%52 W · 283 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 47c | 47.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 53c | 46.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 74c | 43.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Over | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 40c | 38.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 36.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 66c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 60c | 24.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Under | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh PiratesColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.