TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Spread: Hull City AFC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hull City AFCof Hull City AFC, Sheffield Wednesday FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,372
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,468

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,372 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xac75…1319backed Sheffield Wednesday FC55c19,048$10,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,468.063036.7%11 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc43…96d3backed Hull City AFC47c5,203$2,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,759.7771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+47.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Sheffield Wednesday FC53c4,044$2,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,143.495257.7%30 W · 22 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+20%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xea00…c1f1backed Hull City AFC45c3,500$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9259272.8%67 W · 25 L+20.5wins+0.22per pick51cpaid+47.1%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked Hull City AFC45c2,500$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,37513662.5%85 W · 51 L+14.3wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+24.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Sheffield Wednesday FC54c1,997$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,078.122763%17 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed Hull City AFC45c1,788$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.47361.6%45 W · 28 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0fa3…172fbacked Hull City AFC46c1,504$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.162100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+106.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Hull City AFC45c1,500$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82583459.4%495 W · 339 L+25.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a39…a189backed Hull City AFC45c1,500$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8251675%12 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+38.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Sheffield Wednesday FC54c1,352$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.8911149.5%55 W · 56 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40d0…4415backed Hull City AFC45c1,275$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.259254.3%50 W · 42 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Hull City AFC40c789.12$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.624,74441.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Sheffield Wednesday FC54c679.47$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.9126651.1%136 W · 130 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Sheffield Wednesday FC55c625.59$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.0730149.5%149 W · 152 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Hull City AFC45c569.94$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.262,55047.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Sheffield Wednesday FC53c524.59$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.0332037.2%119 W · 201 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Hull City AFC45c502.51$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.6375850%379 W · 379 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc39…1564backed Hull City AFC45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2757268.1%49 W · 23 L+13.8wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+42%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Hull City AFC45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27536956.9%210 W · 159 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hull City AFC59c478.46$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.046,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Hull City AFC46c434.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.7817053.5%91 W · 79 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Hull City AFC45c416.81$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.2429259.2%173 W · 119 L+14.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Hull City AFC45c388$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.421056.7%119 W · 91 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc00…79f8backed Sheffield Wednesday FC54c307.24$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1672458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Sheffield Wednesday FC15c274.35$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3740821.8%89 W · 319 L-53.7wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-49.3%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Hull City AFC39c271.37$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.6815030.7%46 W · 104 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Hull City AFC45c250$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.565557.7%378 W · 277 L+26.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Hull City AFC45c250$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.560557.5%348 W · 257 L+25.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Hull City AFC40c210.17$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.231,93442.4%820 W · 1,114 L-43.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Hull City AFC45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11035056.9%199 W · 151 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Hull City AFC46c185$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.945751.2%234 W · 223 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7123…59b9backed Sheffield Wednesday FC55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.6wins-0.28per pick51cpaid-46.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Hull City AFC45c179.99$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9951847.3%245 W · 273 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Hull City AFC45c175$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.2537557.3%215 W · 160 L+21.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Hull City AFC45c175$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.2535157.8%203 W · 148 L+18.1wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd69c…b714backed Hull City AFC45c167$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Hull City AFC45c160$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8827354.9%150 W · 123 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffc…b220backed Hull City AFC45c150$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+46.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Hull City AFC45c150$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.537958%220 W · 159 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0dd7…e4dabacked Hull City AFC45c147$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.85250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf47e…3862backed Hull City AFC45c145.48$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Sheffield Wednesday FC20c144.55$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8951516.1%83 W · 432 L-49.9wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-38.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Hull City AFC45c140$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7736259.1%214 W · 148 L+23.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Hull City AFC45c140$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7729057.9%168 W · 122 L+14.1wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Hull City AFC45c125$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.7546660.5%282 W · 184 L+30.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Hull City AFC45c125$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.7556158.6%329 W · 232 L+29.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Hull City AFC45c125$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.7538358.2%223 W · 160 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Hull City AFC45c125$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.751,22442.3%518 W · 706 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Hull City AFC45c125$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.751,07445%483 W · 591 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x983a…ac6bbacked Hull City AFC46c120$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.8955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Hull City AFC45c120$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6632357.6%186 W · 137 L+17.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Hull City AFC45c120$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6681559%481 W · 334 L+32.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Hull City AFC45c120$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6696443.7%421 W · 543 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked Hull City AFC45c109$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.9511866.1%78 W · 40 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Hull City AFC45c105.06$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.961,61553%856 W · 759 L+33.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa494…4a1fbacked Hull City AFC45c105$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.757261.1%44 W · 28 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Hull City AFC45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5511048.2%53 W · 57 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Hull City AFC45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5526958.4%157 W · 112 L+13.1wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Hull City AFC45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5526158.2%152 W · 109 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Hull City AFC45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5537554.9%206 W · 169 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Hull City AFC45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5532255.9%180 W · 142 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Hull City AFC45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5530554.8%167 W · 138 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Hull City AFC45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5525456.3%143 W · 111 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Hull City AFC45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5526058.5%152 W · 108 L+15.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Hull City AFC45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5532656.7%185 W · 141 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Hull City AFC45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5536758.3%214 W · 153 L+23.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Hull City AFC45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5528255.7%157 W · 125 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed Hull City AFC45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5526959.9%161 W · 108 L+13.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Hull City AFC45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5532755.7%182 W · 145 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x934c…d02bbacked Hull City AFC78c98.39$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.993764.9%24 W · 13 L+4.4wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbe2…5981backed Hull City AFC46c83.13$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.892240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xffea…5f0abacked Hull City AFC47c80$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.44658.7%27 W · 19 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa427…f87fbacked Hull City AFC45c77.12$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.415660.7%34 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x17c8…7153backed Sheffield Wednesday FC56c76$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Hull City AFC45c70.62$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8412854.7%70 W · 58 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed Hull City AFC45c70$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.512050%60 W · 60 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd734…04dabacked Sheffield Wednesday FC56c63$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe013…1ddcbacked Hull City AFC46c62.5$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.754477.3%34 W · 10 L+10.2wins+0.23per pick54cpaid+45.5%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x3f7c…b686backed Sheffield Wednesday FC55c62$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c4c…dc70backed Hull City AFC46c61$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.943565.7%23 W · 12 L+5.7wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+35.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Hull City AFC45c60$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3322958.1%133 W · 96 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Hull City AFC45c60$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3328359.4%168 W · 115 L+16.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe0d…a09abacked Sheffield Wednesday FC56c56$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed Hull City AFC45c55$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2522858.8%134 W · 94 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7bb…2753backed Hull City AFC47c53.19$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.199858.2%57 W · 41 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+16.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed Sheffield Wednesday FC55c52$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.763943.6%17 W · 22 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x104f…1be4backed Sheffield Wednesday FC55c51$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.05250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Hull City AFC45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.525553.7%137 W · 118 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked Hull City AFC45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.523658.1%137 W · 99 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked Hull City AFC45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.531359.4%186 W · 127 L+15.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4edd…b1a1backed Hull City AFC45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.520556.6%116 W · 89 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x778e…ccd1backed Hull City AFC45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.517456.9%99 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3de5…724bbacked Sheffield Wednesday FC55c49$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bba…6596backed Hull City AFC46c43.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.48862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1872…bcabbacked Hull City AFC46c43.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.48771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c4e…d97ebacked Sheffield Wednesday FC55c43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf4f…63f3backed Sheffield Wednesday FC55c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.83548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc090…baedbacked Sheffield Wednesday FC55c35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c66…3f7fbacked Sheffield Wednesday FC55c34$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.