MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1636c9b001bd45f65d21135e46137d7173ff9e5c81a07f59046e69a650f3ab63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 870.7$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.66 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 59c | 330.52$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.01 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 51c | 305.46$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.14 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 23c | 293.05$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.22 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 70c | 288.57$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 60c | 261.8$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.08 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 41c | 258.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.81 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 6c | 210.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Under | 68c | 163.24$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 140 | 64.3%90 W · 50 L | +11.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 62c | 153.6$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.23 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 38c | 138$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 40c | 137.52$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.51 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 39c | 133.21$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.81 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Under | 40c | 119.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…80a7backed Under | 68c | 84.04$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Under | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Under | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Under | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed Over | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 40c | 79.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 58c | 79.14$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 62c | 68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 38c | 64.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…e316backed Over | 40c | 47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 61c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 60c | 26.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 57c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 13.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 15.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.