MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd828434064c042e417ce4f702b1a1c013f79d70ef0ed103e1e90a0e06fec072a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 5,685$3,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,638.53 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 22c | 4,338$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.17 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 2,361$1,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.62 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 1,752$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.92 | 127 | 59.1%75 W · 52 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 54c | 545.12$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.43 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 68c | 503.5$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.11 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 393.73$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.11 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 303.23$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.67 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 255.99$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.13 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 48c | 213.33$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.75 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 152.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 132.35$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Toronto Blue Jays | 78c | 111.36$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 109.79$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 95.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Tampa Bay Rays | 50c | 85.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 79.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 63.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…e316backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Toronto Blue Jays | 78c | 51.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 48.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 46.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 51c | 40.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 31.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 24.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 20.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 20.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Toronto Blue Jays | 79c | 17.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 17.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 13.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 15.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.