Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16af8933fd778832a76d7fe15541d9e1f74b4cb9ae270150d0e74ccfb8c0c2b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 6c | 1,263$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 19c | 471.16$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.65 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 23c | 422.02$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.89 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd231…633cbacked No | 51c | 399.95$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.98 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed Yes | 79c | 399.09$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.98 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 17c | 299.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 80c | 295$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.93 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 67c | 209.4$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 15c | 207$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 21c | 192.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 16c | 187.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 187.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 185.92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.41 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed No | 19c | 166.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 36c | 145.38$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 45c | 142.65$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 80c | 137$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 120.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…edf2backed No | 22c | 118.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…ee43backed Yes | 79c | 113.74$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 38c | 103.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae79…5322backed No | 19c | 91.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 49c | 85.15$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 19c | 83.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed No | 16c | 83.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 74.52$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 68c | 73.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 30c | 72.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 77c | 70.62$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 17c | 70.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 16c | 66.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34f6…5d76backed Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 50c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 32c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 63c | 46.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 77c | 45.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 53c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 76c | 35.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 49c | 32.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 45c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 69c | 16.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd83e…c0b5backed Yes | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.