AI · resolved market
Will Google (GOOGL) Q2 Cloud Revenue be above $23B?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1713d748c33c852d3e5efb9d2078efb86f924afa308a5111c8e62f1dfd4e14ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 34c | 370.25$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.41 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc3…084abacked No | 47c | 160$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 45c | 103.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 90.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.14 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9b…2b32backed No | 60c | 81.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 81.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 32c | 80.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 42c | 79.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 66c | 67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 66c | 55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…c43ebacked Yes | 39c | 51.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -10.6wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…2ad3backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 57c | 29.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -11.8wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…2cf6backed No | 67c | 28.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed Yes | 54c | 26.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63e0…4ca5backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…967cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -4.2wins | -0.38per pick | 56cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google (GOOGL) Q2 Cloud Revenue be above $23B?this page
- Will Google (GOOGL) Q2 Cloud Revenue be above $22.5B?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) Q2 Cloud Revenue be above $22B?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) Q2 Cloud Revenue be above $23.5B?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) Q2 Cloud Revenue be above $24B?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.