AI · resolved market
Will Google (GOOGL) Q2 Cloud Revenue be above $22.5B?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9343ab754acdcb4cff490ce0c5056cb93526d218605b553e04f18219ae8b979a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 55c | 612.1$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.89 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 38c | 378.44$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.89 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed Yes | 69c | 375$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.38 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 31c | 340.58$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.63 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 61c | 177.04$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.75 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9b…2b32backed No | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 32c | 100.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 70c | 89.48$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed No | 14c | 80.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked Yes | 69c | 55.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21a5…437ebacked Yes | 69c | 51.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 31c | 50.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…b81fbacked Yes | 69c | 50.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73cb…7627backed No | 44c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 29c | 45.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fa…7be3backed Yes | 61c | 43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…7f87backed No | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 35c | 39.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 44c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -13.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x609f…2fc0backed Yes | 69c | 36.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac2…a4fabacked Yes | 69c | 36.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…e142backed No | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Yes | 55c | 20.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +9.8wins | +0.25per pick | 49cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2726…0d0bbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 61cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google (GOOGL) Q2 Cloud Revenue be above $22.5B?this page
- Will Google (GOOGL) Q2 Cloud Revenue be above $22B?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) Q2 Cloud Revenue be above $23.5B?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) Q2 Cloud Revenue be above $23B?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) Q2 Cloud Revenue be above $24B?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.