Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17477ba20e1a8163a35af94a34c868b2da186be511df79912d865f8f7f309781
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…ae3dbacked Yes | 37c | 1,650$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 39cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 3c | 1,369$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 29c | 616.06$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.59 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 31c | 407.89$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.66 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 301.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 37c | 296.76$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.68 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 69c | 288.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.52 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 24c | 270.56$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.78 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 40c | 269.82$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.89 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 254.4$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.38 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 40c | 206.8$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.46 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 61c | 204.85$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.01 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 67c | 179.28$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…891dbacked Yes | 28c | 173.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.56 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…6771backed Yes | 32c | 131.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 36c | 130.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 118.58$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 22c | 118.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.24 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 104.01$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…c168backed Yes | 33c | 90.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 86.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 72c | 83.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 27c | 77.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.03 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 37c | 76.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 76.37$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 75.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 52c | 75.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 24c | 70.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 67c | 70$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 68.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 15c | 66.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 67c | 63.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 60c | 58.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 23c | 52.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 41c | 52.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 68c | 51.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e5…bf21backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 22c | 48.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 66c | 48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 32c | 44.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 44.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 48c | 43.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 46c | 43.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 57c | 42.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 40.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 52c | 40.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 31c | 36.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 79c | 34.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 40c | 33.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f46…7a71backed Yes | 40c | 28.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 66c | 27.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x79ce…506cbacked Yes | 38c | 26.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 70c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed No | 74c | 25.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 42c | 24.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 70c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 46c | 22.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 67c | 22.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x199d…c3c9backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 64c | 18.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 64c | 16.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 69c | 14.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.