Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1749fd71b76af564ef906a762ab23f99afdf3f5ce362e5bb9e17077d2886326f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 20c | 1,640$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,310.18 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x334d…7acbbacked No | 23c | 647.74$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 39c | 538.93$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.23 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 8c | 446.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.98 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 9c | 430.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.18 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 37c | 413.84$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.49 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 73c | 411.4$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.15 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 7c | 337.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 309.7$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.96 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 9c | 305.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.67 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 45c | 300.65$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.71 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 10c | 272.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.84 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 10c | 235.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.04 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 210.02$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.35 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 26c | 206.74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.72 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 77c | 189.6$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.44 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 15c | 186.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.03 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 28c | 166.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.89 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 13c | 153.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.67 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 54c | 145.19$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.42 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 70c | 134.39$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.69 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 75c | 118.79$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.58 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 58c | 108.81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked No | 72c | 101$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.77 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 37c | 99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 44c | 97.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 12c | 94.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.12 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 91.28$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.84 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 30c | 90.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 90$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 88.75$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.11 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 62c | 87.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 49c | 86.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 64c | 82.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 79c | 81.9$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 71.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 68.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 24c | 67.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 44c | 63.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 22c | 62.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 34c | 58.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 36c | 52.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 73c | 51.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 69c | 38.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 77c | 37.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 49c | 37.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 33c | 32.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 68c | 27.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 25.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 22.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 78c | 22.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 20.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 69c | 19.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6284…ac6cbacked No | 76c | 16.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a38…2471backed No | 79c | 13.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or below on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.