Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x498be712fb76fa3f1750055cf0f86939af2900b4f6e91d7c53c2fb4ea2abcdbf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 16c | 1,741$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.55 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 15c | 593.27$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.09 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 12c | 515.8$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 66c | 411.4$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.56 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 32c | 400$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.86 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 55c | 365.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 47c | 316.23$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 296.37$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.76 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 257.41$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.77 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 251.24$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.98 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 60c | 227.19$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.63 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 59c | 213.7$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.62 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 41c | 190.58$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.98 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 186.62$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.34 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 150.42$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 54c | 142.04$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.86 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 56c | 135.95$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.66 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 37c | 135.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 14c | 130.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 71c | 130.25$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 71c | 119.86$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 58c | 104.91$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 79c | 103.46$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 32c | 103$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5d…c45abacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 99.12$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 65c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 67c | 83.38$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 64c | 82.85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 68c | 75.96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 35c | 71.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 61c | 69.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 59c | 65.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 58.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 34c | 55.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 32c | 55.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 54c | 55.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ab…784ebacked Yes | 41c | 52.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.32per pick | 51cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 48.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b27…5197backed No | 63c | 45.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 55c | 44.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 43.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 51c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 42c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 77c | 39.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 38.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 53c | 37.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 37.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…a4a8backed No | 71c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -16.6wins | -0.29per pick | 61cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 42c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 71c | 33.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 32c | 33.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 51c | 33.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6d…08edbacked Yes | 61c | 32.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 50c | 31.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 58c | 31.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 25.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 25.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 70c | 24.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 71c | 24.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 65c | 21.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…5737backed Yes | 61c | 21.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…c578backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 19.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 65c | 17.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 60c | 17.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 16.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59e5…81fdbacked No | 78c | 14.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or below on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.