TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Sarasota: Alex Rybakov vs Martin Damm

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Alex Rybakovof Alex Rybakov, Martin Damm
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$154,438
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$176,047

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $154,438 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5aa9…febebacked Martin Damm48c25,717$12,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,363.561,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed Alex Rybakov65c18,931$12,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,71414264.8%92 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Martin Damm33c17,299$5,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,748.149,03836.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L-196.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc1c…2bf2backed Martin Damm0c13,161$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.169464.9%61 W · 33 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Alex Rybakov51c9,890$5,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,863.0111,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Alex Rybakov33c9,403$3,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,300.366,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Alex Rybakov34c6,652$2,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,375.12,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Martin Damm69c5,122$3,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,545.743,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Alex Rybakov55c3,880$2,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,735.122,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb272…ee5abacked Martin Damm43c2,405$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.0214822.3%33 W · 115 L-14.8wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-44.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Alex Rybakov36c1,991$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,276.261,22841.1%505 W · 723 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bc2…4c80backed Alex Rybakov65c1,847$1,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.4846473.3%340 W · 124 L+27.0wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x896d…cd2cbacked Martin Damm70c1,600$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.417357.8%100 W · 73 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Alex Rybakov30c1,323$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.236,51254.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L+289.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5c1…7487backed Alex Rybakov15c1,265$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.537630.3%23 W · 53 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc135…4bdebacked Martin Damm35c1,000$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed Alex Rybakov39c747.09$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.8468026.2%178 W · 502 L-24.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcab…b9bbbacked Martin Damm60c698.29$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.737945.6%36 W · 43 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ef…468bbacked Alex Rybakov26c677.44$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.313450%67 W · 67 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Alex Rybakov29c669.49$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.051,67353%887 W · 786 L+45.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5dda…1768backed Alex Rybakov14c635.73$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.73366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+228.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Martin Damm68c617.45$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.8641658.7%244 W · 172 L+22.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc2d4…d2f2backed Alex Rybakov33c592.63$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.76333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Martin Damm67c588.94$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.0919153.4%102 W · 89 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-13%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Martin Damm70c563.93$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.691,13250.3%569 W · 563 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Martin Damm45c552.63$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.582,08952.2%1,090 W · 999 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Martin Damm69c536.13$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.161,67850.8%852 W · 826 L+30.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Martin Damm70c474.21$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.4350156.1%281 W · 220 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Martin Damm70c471.41$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.4985348.7%415 W · 438 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed Martin Damm56c461.54$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.7540548.1%195 W · 210 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee7…4c1abacked Martin Damm71c447.1$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.4410860.2%65 W · 43 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Martin Damm69c443.78$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.2548453.7%260 W · 224 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Alex Rybakov24c423.81$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.762,43350.8%1,236 W · 1,197 L+81.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked Martin Damm71c396.28$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.0417656.3%99 W · 77 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Martin Damm68c379.27$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.9339955.4%221 W · 178 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed Martin Damm60c362.24$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.9529652.4%155 W · 141 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63c4…26f2backed Alex Rybakov27c361.51$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.917145.6%78 W · 93 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Alex Rybakov30c356.9$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.126,84048.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L+58.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Alex Rybakov32c352.92$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.67,96850.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L+92.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Martin Damm71c328.09$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.3747552.4%249 W · 226 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebf8…8bb4backed Alex Rybakov12c322.76$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.03520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid+66.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Alex Rybakov30c319.33$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.531,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3833…f596backed Martin Damm61c319.1$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8ed…8bb4backed Alex Rybakov32c300.57$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.6610454.8%57 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3d5…7ca1backed Alex Rybakov34c296.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.4725756%144 W · 113 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0cc…275cbacked Alex Rybakov32c295.23$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.287732.5%25 W · 52 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf003…0a0cbacked Martin Damm35c292.92$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa42c…b22ebacked Martin Damm60c289.84$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.1913151.1%67 W · 64 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Alex Rybakov13c275.21$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.614,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7a5…f64abacked Martin Damm74c266.05$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.8884963.1%536 W · 313 L+0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked Martin Damm74c266.05$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.8840264.4%259 W · 143 L+12.8wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Alex Rybakov25c251.35$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.513,88435%1,358 W · 2,526 L+92.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Alex Rybakov28c250$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.719,37444.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L-244.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07d0…1310backed Martin Damm67c235.05$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.849054.4%49 W · 41 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Martin Damm61c229.4$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.0232050%160 W · 160 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Martin Damm62c224.91$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.6695846.6%446 W · 512 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Alex Rybakov6c222.54$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.131,50435.1%528 W · 976 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Martin Damm61c220.5$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.1137153.9%200 W · 171 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Martin Damm20c205.19$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.586,79236.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L-98.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Alex Rybakov29c200.41$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.0227240.4%110 W · 162 L-25.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-26.8%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x84bd…34d0backed Alex Rybakov26c190.66$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.0910829.6%32 W · 76 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Martin Damm66c182.95$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.3576853%407 W · 361 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Martin Damm64c182.82$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.721,17451.9%609 W · 565 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Martin Damm63c173.08$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.8530555.4%169 W · 136 L+0.8wins0.00per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Alex Rybakov26c150$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11129230.5%89 W · 203 L-11.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Alex Rybakov32c147.04$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.593,79854.9%2,087 W · 1,711 L+111.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Martin Damm65c146.75$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.394,97538.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L-19.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b64…a351backed Martin Damm75c143.15$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.3735268.2%240 W · 112 L-0.5wins0.00per pick68cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7690…dfcebacked Alex Rybakov27c141.66$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.4134637.9%131 W · 215 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Alex Rybakov35c137.29$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.241,45645.1%656 W · 800 L+42.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa15f…ad19backed Martin Damm74c133.03$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.449257.6%53 W · 39 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Alex Rybakov70c131.9$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6813456.7%76 W · 58 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ccb…604ebacked Martin Damm77c128.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.683161.3%19 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4865…904dbacked Martin Damm78c126.57$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6837071.9%266 W · 104 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Alex Rybakov44c118.78$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.2245051.8%233 W · 217 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Martin Damm44c118$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.665346.4%303 W · 350 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd52…07aabacked Martin Damm74c106.42$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7516762.9%105 W · 62 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Alex Rybakov26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741,83253%971 W · 861 L-45.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed Martin Damm34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3451445.5%234 W · 280 L-2.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb2e3…4874backed Alex Rybakov75c99.62$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5291880.5%739 W · 179 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick76cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed Martin Damm74c95.91$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8898055.4%543 W · 437 L+3.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa163…934dbacked Alex Rybakov28c95.68$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.8930715.6%48 W · 259 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+0.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Alex Rybakov27c95.62$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.846556.1%261 W · 204 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…9257backed Alex Rybakov65c94$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.94271.4%30 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9e4…24c2backed Martin Damm74c93.78$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.426759.6%159 W · 108 L-1.2wins0.00per pick60cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Martin Damm76c90.72$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0857052.6%300 W · 270 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ece…068abacked Martin Damm72c86.46$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.652450%12 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Alex Rybakov32c86.25$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.5323758.6%139 W · 98 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x622b…5a4abacked Alex Rybakov26c83.74$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.9735040.9%143 W · 207 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1968…8c66backed Martin Damm55c79.22$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.195160.8%31 W · 20 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b8f…f31bbacked Martin Damm54c76.31$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3116757.5%96 W · 71 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Alex Rybakov25c74.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.434,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Alex Rybakov24c73.31$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7624634.1%84 W · 162 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d2b…5271backed Martin Damm70c72.83$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.233661.1%22 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e8…ff03backed Martin Damm62c67.89$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1929851%152 W · 146 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26d0…566ebacked Alex Rybakov43c67.84$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8748552.4%254 W · 231 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe9c…1700backed Martin Damm39c61.29$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1315059.3%89 W · 61 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x231f…254bbacked Martin Damm41c57.24$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2510160.4%61 W · 40 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bec…c707backed Martin Damm77c55.33$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7712861.7%79 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Martin Damm63c54.56$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.375,00941.4%2,075 W · 2,934 L-82.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.