Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1825432f791ccf821b7985a54e41f612e5b11c1466421959aaac094b0db1faa3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,547 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 71c | 582.58$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.08 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 31c | 569.16$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.21 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 418.97$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 288.45$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 70c | 285.7$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 30c | 276$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.87 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 64c | 270.3$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.57 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 7c | 256$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 44c | 222.59$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 72c | 193.39$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.69 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 24c | 160.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 154.68$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 57c | 144.89$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.63 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…8f52backed Yes | 29c | 132$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 117.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 66c | 108.52$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 27c | 105.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 27c | 97.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 44c | 90.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 52c | 85.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 49c | 85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 30c | 82.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 64c | 79.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 73c | 79.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 30c | 79.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 69c | 77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 52c | 76.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7908…4f35backed Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked No | 69c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 29c | 72.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 76c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 27c | 61.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 69c | 60.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 30c | 57.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 30c | 56.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 62c | 55.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 70c | 54.81$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 26c | 54.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 49.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 32c | 47.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 74c | 47.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked Yes | 30c | 46.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 32c | 43.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 42.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked No | 54c | 42.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes | 33c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 35c | 41.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 36c | 41.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460b…ed32backed Yes | 34c | 40.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3efd…b982backed Yes | 31c | 39.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed Yes | 45c | 39.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94e…e6e5backed No | 77c | 38.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 53c | 38.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 40c | 37.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 37c | 37.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 42c | 35.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 33.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 76c | 31.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 39c | 31.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 68c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…a957backed No | 77c | 29.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 71c | 28.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 75c | 28.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 66c | 25.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 64c | 25.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb824…ee94backed No | 68c | 25.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 63c | 23.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…652abacked No | 51c | 20.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf1…c28cbacked No | 72c | 19.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 19.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 67c | 17.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75a8…7ce7backed No | 79c | 17.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed No | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8abc…9e55backed No | 74c | 16.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 15.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 75c | 15.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef57…e705backed No | 74c | 14.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed No | 72c | 14.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked No | 80c | 12.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.61 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb20e…58cebacked No | 80c | 12.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.51 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 45°F or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 64°F or higher on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.