Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a640921ea677add00fd11f308de91cdda4928463f45a8a9cce9d47ae8ef7dc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,346 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 57c | 318.56$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.68 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 304.64$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 38c | 276$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.92 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 261.92$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91e…4e59backed No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 45c | 241.9$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.38 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 36c | 229.98$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 65c | 221.83$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.41 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 62c | 203.67$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.17 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 53c | 196.07$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 14c | 190.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 37c | 140.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 41c | 130.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.75 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 54c | 121$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.35 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 39c | 119.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 51c | 96.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee7…0ba8backed Yes | 44c | 91.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 65c | 84.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 69c | 79.55$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 53c | 73.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…9d98backed Yes | 69c | 72.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 70c | 70.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed No | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 64.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…b5e8backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 35c | 55.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 48c | 53.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 58c | 51.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…108abacked Yes | 48c | 51.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 39c | 51.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 51c | 46.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6af…fc2fbacked No | 64c | 46.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 46.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…761cbacked Yes | 41c | 46.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 63c | 46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 64c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3f…88e2backed Yes | 44c | 44.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…89edbacked Yes | 30c | 44.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked No | 56c | 44.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 55c | 44.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 46c | 43.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd467…d7a8backed No | 50c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460b…ed32backed Yes | 34c | 40.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 46c | 39.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed No | 59c | 39.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed No | 28c | 36.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 47c | 36.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 36.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 56c | 35.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 39c | 34.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 31c | 34.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed No | 46c | 34.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 28.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 45c | 26.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked No | 50c | 26.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfc…0be4backed No | 54c | 26.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 56c | 26.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 25.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 54c | 25.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1efd…2cbdbacked No | 57c | 24.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 68c | 22.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 52c | 21.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x554a…09c8backed No | 60c | 19.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb957…b8acbacked Yes | 53c | 19.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb473…6931backed No | 56c | 18.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed No | 69c | 14.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 45°F or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 64°F or higher on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.